The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Memorial
3x $0.15
Sure Grip
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
2x $0.38
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.42
Reef Grief
1x $0.98
Mint Fan
1x $1.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
30.0% $5.35
Serpent Strike
8.0% $1.49
Tosai
8.0% $1.30
Rising Sun
8.0% $0.79
Control
8.0% $0.77
Max Win
$18.08 (+217.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.43 (+30.6%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+126.5%
Cost
$5.69
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.69
Ask Price EV $7.43 (+30.6%)
Bid Price EV $6.46 (+13.6%)
Ask Profit $1.74 (+30.6%)
Bid Profit $0.77 (+13.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.97 (+17.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.74
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.77
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+217.7%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-87.5%)
Volatility +126.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$12.39
Avg Loss -$2.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-87.5%)
Std Dev $7.20
Avg Norm Float 0.1999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 149h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 20S //TOTAL COST $5.69 //ASK PRICE EV $7.43 //BID PRICE EV $6.46 //ASK PROFIT $1.74 (+30.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.77 (+13.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +126.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$18.08
+$12.39
+217.7%
$15.21
+$9.52
+167.3%
$2.87
15.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$5.35
-$0.34
-6.0%
$5.11
-$0.58
-10.2%
$0.24
4.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.49
-$4.20
-73.8%
$1.32
-$4.37
-76.8%
$0.17
11.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.30
-$4.39
-77.1%
$1.18
-$4.51
-79.3%
$0.12
9.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.79
-$4.90
-86.1%
$0.72
-$4.97
-87.3%
$0.07
8.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$4.92
-86.5%
$0.66
-$5.03
-88.4%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$4.98
-87.5%
$0.70
-$4.99
-87.7%
$0.01
1.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.11992799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.348,
"optimistic_value": 5.32,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:23.634650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1139316,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 1.4935,
"optimistic_value": 1.49,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 1.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:56:40.829677Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1597031206,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:22:23.659961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.18999573412,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:55.643497Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.13991599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.3045,
"optimistic_value": 1.28,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:31.800015Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8678d97cc4c713fe679ac67d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "506235223785210480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:59:40.712006Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:59:40.712006Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "491598690699416462",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:16.017627Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "491598690700100102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:13:00.845641Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "525375688037571919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:28.053543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102290329888807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "500605942755288971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "496102343225671715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:19.992951Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "625579418032572382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:53.374783Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354142899875011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:43.321719Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.57 Tosai 8.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.80 Control 8.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +176.4% | $16.82 +19.5% | 30.0% | +103.4% | $14.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.14 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Tosai 8.0% $0.74 Control 8.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.69 | $6.93 +204.0% | $2.71 +18.8% | 30.0% | +118.9% | $2.28 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.14 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77 Tosai 8.0% $0.74 Wave Breaker 8.0% $0.65 | $6.93 +196.2% | $2.71 +15.6% | 30.0% | +115.8% | $2.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.49 Tosai 6.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +167.4% | $8.50 +25.8% | 35.0% | +103.3% | $6.76 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.57 Tosai 2.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 2.0% $1.80 Control 2.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +100.5% | $23.89 +23.1% | 45.0% | +70.0% | $19.41 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.35 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.27 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.80 Wave Breaker 4.0% $1.68 | $38.92 +122.7% | $21.46 +22.8% | 40.0% | +81.5% | $17.48 | — |