The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Sure Grip
2x $0.12
Memorial
2x $0.13
Yeti Camo
3x $0.23
Cobalt Paisley
3x $0.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $6.93
Royal Guard
30.0% $1.14
Serpent Strike
8.0% $0.77
Tosai
8.0% $0.74
Control
8.0% $0.70
Rising Sun
8.0% $0.69
Max Win
$6.93 (+204.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (+18.8%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+121.5%
Cost
$2.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.28
Ask Price EV $2.71 (+18.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.31 (+1.1%)
Ask Profit $0.43 (+18.8%)
Bid Profit $0.02 (+1.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.40 (+17.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+204.0%)
Worst Case $0.69 (-69.7%)
Volatility +121.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$4.65
Avg Loss -$1.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.69 (-69.7%)
Std Dev $2.77
Avg Norm Float 0.4776
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 151h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 03M 53S //TOTAL COST $2.28 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.31 //ASK PROFIT $0.43 (+18.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.02 (+1.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +121.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.93
+$4.65
+204.0%
$5.76
+$3.48
+152.6%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$1.14
-$1.14
-50.0%
$1.07
-$1.21
-53.1%
$0.07
6.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$1.51
-66.1%
$0.66
-$1.62
-71.1%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$1.54
-67.5%
$0.69
-$1.59
-69.7%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.70
-$1.58
-69.1%
$0.64
-$1.64
-71.9%
$0.06
9.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.69
-$1.59
-69.6%
$0.55
-$1.73
-75.9%
$0.14
20.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.69
-$1.59
-69.7%
$0.66
-$1.62
-71.1%
$0.03
4.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.35817,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.28653599999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.139,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:34.957368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2722092,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.3815680522,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:46.300086Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.47756,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.6934999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:49:07.345222Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.45394418043999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:37:55.276066Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.334292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:41:56.863424Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8678d97cc4c713fe679ac67d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "524249840859077859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.426194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "524249840859076095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:23.208111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "507361342333951621",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.426194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "506235223785210480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:23.208111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "520872141037862616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "529879340431980696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "511864941881716089",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "519746188258491416",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.49 Tosai 8.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +217.7% | $7.43 +30.6% | 30.0% | +122.0% | $5.69 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.57 Tosai 8.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.80 Control 8.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +176.4% | $16.82 +19.5% | 30.0% | +103.4% | $14.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.14 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77 Tosai 8.0% $0.74 Wave Breaker 8.0% $0.65 | $6.93 +196.2% | $2.71 +15.6% | 30.0% | +115.8% | $2.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.42 Tosai 14.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +477.5% | $4.21 +34.5% | 30.0% | +188.0% | $3.13 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.48 Tosai 12.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +344.1% | $5.30 +30.1% | 40.0% | +157.7% | $4.07 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.48 Tosai 10.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +255.1% | $6.37 +25.1% | 50.0% | +132.8% | $5.09 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.46 Tosai 6.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 6.0% $1.77 Control 6.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +141.9% | $19.15 +19.0% | 35.0% | +90.3% | $16.09 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.77 Control 4.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +114.9% | $21.50 +18.7% | 40.0% | +78.5% | $18.11 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.46 Tosai 2.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 2.0% $1.77 Control 2.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +91.7% | $23.84 +17.5% | 45.0% | +67.1% | $20.30 | — |