The Chroma 3 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fubar
2x $0.51
Spectre
1x $1.45
Bioleak
3x $1.72
Atlas
1x $5.49
Ventilators
1x $5.83
VariCamo Blue
1x $19.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
10.0% $701.51
Pink DDPAT
10.0% $135.49
Ghost Crusader
16.0% $42.94
Firefight
16.0% $34.23
Red Astor
16.0% $24.32
Re-Entry
16.0% $15.54
Max Win
$701.51 (+717.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$104.75 (+22.0%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+235.0%
Cost
$85.86
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $85.86
Ask Price EV $104.75 (+22.0%)
Bid Price EV $81.17 (-5.5%)
Ask Profit $18.89 (+22.0%)
Bid Profit $-4.69 (-5.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $23.58 (+27.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$18.89
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.69
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $701.51 (+717.0%)
Worst Case $14.52 (-83.1%)
Volatility +235.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$332.64
Avg Loss -$59.55
Bottom 5% Outcome $14.52 (-83.1%)
Std Dev $201.80
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 145h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Spectre
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Bioleak
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Well-Worn
$2.80 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Factory New
$5.49 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Ventilators
—
Factory New
$5.83 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Bioleak
—
Factory New
$7.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Bioleak
—
Factory New
$7.42 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$34.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 39S //TOTAL COST $85.86 //ASK PRICE EV $104.75 //BID PRICE EV $81.17 //ASK PROFIT $18.89 (+22.0%) //BID PROFIT $-4.69 (-5.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $701.51 //VOLATILITY +235.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$701.51
+$615.65
+717.0%
$490.79
+$404.93
+471.6%
$210.72
30.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$135.49
+$49.63
+57.8%
$116.22
+$30.36
+35.4%
$19.27
14.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$42.94
-$42.92
-50.0%
$41.44
-$44.42
-51.7%
$1.50
3.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$34.23
-$51.63
-60.1%
$33.31
-$52.55
-61.2%
$0.92
2.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$24.32
-$61.54
-71.7%
$23.85
-$62.01
-72.2%
$0.47
1.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$15.54
-$70.32
-81.9%
$15.49
-$70.37
-82.0%
$0.05
0.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$14.52
-$71.34
-83.1%
$13.83
-$72.03
-83.9%
$0.69
4.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 24.320500000000003,
"optimistic_value": 24.1,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 23.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:37.387854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 34.231,
"optimistic_value": 34,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 33.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:51:44.418441Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 42.942,
"optimistic_value": 42.55,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 41.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:44.405221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.030069900000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 15.541,
"optimistic_value": 15.52,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 15.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:47.854607Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 14.518,
"optimistic_value": 14.28,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 13.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:48.926942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11174819999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.48850000000002,
"optimistic_value": 127.68,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:08.677576Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 701.5105,
"optimistic_value": 657.4,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 490.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:32.262681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_85ae2b8cc15a3c06524b5ece",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "503982792715069651",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:28.959503Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-fc1505f10422",
"listing_id": "525375522199680931",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Spectre (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Spectre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fc1505f10422.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:53.949805Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-6e2ddbfa3638",
"listing_id": "518620288314362152",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Bioleak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e2ddbfa3638.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:34.840971Z"
},
{
"price": 2.8,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "498354089953590151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:10.376909Z"
},
{
"price": 5.49,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "743798298784353191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Atlas (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:39:52.759171Z"
},
{
"price": 5.83,
"skin_id": "skin-3de8a2cd3d43",
"listing_id": "509613036861254223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Ventilators",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3de8a2cd3d43.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:32.944179Z"
},
{
"price": 7.25,
"skin_id": "skin-6e2ddbfa3638",
"listing_id": "714524901199360359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Bioleak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e2ddbfa3638.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:34.840971Z"
},
{
"price": 7.42,
"skin_id": "skin-6e2ddbfa3638",
"listing_id": "508486392204148118",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Bioleak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e2ddbfa3638.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:34.840971Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:54.200786Z"
},
{
"price": 34,
"skin_id": "skin-11ddb95a9bd7",
"listing_id": "500605092753533903",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-11ddb95a9bd7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:39.062831Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-12:8+collection-set-overpass:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 18.0% $42.94 Firefight 18.0% $34.23 Red Astor 18.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 18.0% $15.54 | $701.51 +1345.2% | $65.51 +35.0% | 10.0% | +302.0% | $48.54 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 14.0% $42.94 Firefight 14.0% $34.23 Red Astor 14.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 14.0% $15.54 | $701.51 +526.1% | $143.95 +28.5% | 30.0% | +207.5% | $112.04 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 12.0% $42.94 Firefight 12.0% $34.23 Red Astor 12.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 12.0% $15.54 | $701.51 +344.5% | $183.19 +16.1% | 20.0% | +162.3% | $157.82 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×5+The Overpass Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 25.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 25.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 10.0% $42.94 Firefight 10.0% $34.23 Red Astor 10.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 10.0% $15.54 | $701.51 +228.3% | $222.41 +4.1% | 25.0% | +127.5% | $213.68 | — |