The Chroma 3 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fubar
4x $0.38
Oceanic
3x $0.50
Atlas
1x $0.81
VariCamo Blue
2x $16.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
10.0% $80.19
Pink DDPAT
10.0% $59.98
Re-Entry
16.0% $2.36
Red Astor
16.0% $2.27
Black Tie
16.0% $2.20
Firefight
16.0% $2.18
Max Win
$80.19 (+106.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.79 (-59.4%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+70.8%
Cost
$38.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $38.86
Ask Price EV $15.79 (-59.4%)
Bid Price EV $13.50 (-65.3%)
Ask Profit $-23.07 (-59.4%)
Bid Profit $-25.36 (-65.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.29 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$23.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$25.36
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $80.19 (+106.4%)
Worst Case $2.05 (-94.7%)
Volatility +70.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$31.22
Avg Loss -$36.64
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.05 (-94.7%)
Std Dev $27.52
Avg Norm Float 0.2109
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 146h 17m
Oldest Output Price 146h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Oceanic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Oceanic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Oceanic
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$16.47 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$17.06 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 00M 35S //TOTAL COST $38.86 //ASK PRICE EV $15.79 //BID PRICE EV $13.50 //ASK PROFIT $-23.07 (-59.4%) //BID PROFIT $-25.36 (-65.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $80.19 //VOLATILITY +70.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$80.19
+$41.33
+106.4%
$67.00
+$28.14
+72.4%
$13.19
16.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$59.98
+$21.12
+54.3%
$52.83
+$13.97
+35.9%
$7.15
11.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.36
-$36.50
-93.9%
$2.01
-$36.85
-94.8%
$0.35
15.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.27
-$36.59
-94.1%
$1.85
-$37.01
-95.2%
$0.42
18.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.20
-$36.66
-94.3%
$1.81
-$37.05
-95.3%
$0.39
17.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.18
-$36.68
-94.4%
$1.80
-$37.06
-95.4%
$0.38
17.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.05
-$36.81
-94.7%
$2.00
-$36.86
-94.9%
$0.05
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 2.2739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:58:19.842478Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 2.1835,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 1.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T11:44:20.835434Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 2.054,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:49.589801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0906784,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 2.3645,
"optimistic_value": 2.34,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 2.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:51:10.380196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.15816000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 2.2035,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:05:43.136697Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2160512,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 59.9785,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 52.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:39:55.435924Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 80.19149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 74.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:39:29.645920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_85ae2b8cc15a3c06524b5ece",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "514116688950699726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:20.502697Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "511864091789602461",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:20.502697Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-3903899a4282",
"listing_id": "512990789045477471",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Oceanic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3903899a4282.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:32.774607Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "503982792715069651",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:20.502697Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "514116688949466042",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:20.502697Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "659354440440956126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:13.141769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-3903899a4282",
"listing_id": "655975472285722684",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Oceanic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3903899a4282.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:32.774607Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-3903899a4282",
"listing_id": "632332842686717887",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Oceanic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3903899a4282.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:32.774607Z"
},
{
"price": 16.47,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "651475044035708298",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
},
{
"price": 17.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "655978008938796559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-12:8+collection-set-overpass:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 10.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 10.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 16.0% $42.94 Firefight 16.0% $34.23 Red Astor 16.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 16.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +780.6% | $104.72 +31.5% | 20.0% | +249.3% | $79.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 18.0% $42.94 Firefight 18.0% $34.23 Red Astor 18.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 18.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +1345.2% | $65.49 +34.9% | 10.0% | +302.0% | $48.54 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 14.0% $42.94 Firefight 14.0% $34.23 Red Astor 14.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 14.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +526.1% | $143.94 +28.5% | 30.0% | +207.5% | $112.04 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 12.0% $42.94 Firefight 12.0% $34.23 Red Astor 12.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 12.0% $15.54 | $701.51 +356.0% | $183.17 +19.1% | 20.0% | +166.5% | $153.84 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×5+The Overpass Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 25.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 25.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 10.0% $42.94 Firefight 10.0% $34.23 Red Astor 10.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 10.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +228.0% | $222.38 +4.0% | 25.0% | +127.4% | $213.88 | — |