The Chroma 3 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Fubar
4x $0.51
Spectre
2x $1.45
Bioleak
2x $1.75
VariCamo Blue
1x $19.39
Nitro
1x $21.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Pink DDPAT
10.0% $135.49
Road Rash
10.0% $124.10
Re-Entry
16.0% $15.46
Firefight
16.0% $3.44
Ghost Crusader
16.0% $3.20
Black Tie
16.0% $2.97
Max Win
$135.49 (+148.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$30.37 (-44.2%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+91.8%
Cost
$54.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $54.45
Ask Price EV $30.37 (-44.2%)
Bid Price EV $26.65 (-51.1%)
Ask Profit $-24.08 (-44.2%)
Bid Profit $-27.80 (-51.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.72 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$24.08
Bid Slippage Buffer -$27.80
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $135.49 (+148.8%)
Worst Case $2.51 (-95.4%)
Volatility +91.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$75.34
Avg Loss -$48.93
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.51 (-95.4%)
Std Dev $49.97
Avg Norm Float 0.1215
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 116h 25m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Spectre
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Spectre
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Bioleak
—
Factory New
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Bioleak
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Well-Worn
$2.84 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Well-Worn
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$21.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 02S //TOTAL COST $54.45 //ASK PRICE EV $30.37 //BID PRICE EV $26.65 //ASK PROFIT $-24.08 (-44.2%) //BID PROFIT $-27.80 (-51.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $135.49 //VOLATILITY +91.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$135.49
+$81.04
+148.8%
$116.28
+$61.83
+113.6%
$19.21
14.2%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$124.10
+$69.65
+127.9%
$108.84
+$54.39
+99.9%
$15.25
12.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$15.46
-$38.99
-71.6%
$14.72
-$39.73
-73.0%
$0.74
4.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.44
-$51.01
-93.7%
$3.12
-$51.33
-94.3%
$0.32
9.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.20
-$51.25
-94.1%
$2.94
-$51.51
-94.6%
$0.26
8.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.97
-$51.48
-94.5%
$2.70
-$51.75
-95.0%
$0.27
9.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.51
-$51.94
-95.4%
$2.37
-$52.08
-95.6%
$0.14
5.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 2.5055,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:35:24.736547Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 3.441,
"optimistic_value": 3.35,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 3.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:36:04.410942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 3.2039999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 2.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:50.046737Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.052245,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 15.459,
"optimistic_value": 15.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 14.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:45.728167Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.091125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 2.969,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 2.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T15:26:15.068075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.48850000000002,
"optimistic_value": 127.68,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:39:55.443975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 124.095,
"optimistic_value": 120,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 108.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:08.182202Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_85ae2b8cc15a3c06524b5ece",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "503982792715069651",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:20.502697Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "514116688949466042",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:20.502697Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-fc1505f10422",
"listing_id": "525375522199680931",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Spectre (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Spectre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fc1505f10422.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:29.583333Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-fc1505f10422",
"listing_id": "525374890947188299",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Spectre (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Spectre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fc1505f10422.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:29.583333Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-6e2ddbfa3638",
"listing_id": "514115891841467334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Bioleak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e2ddbfa3638.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:08.139413Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-6e2ddbfa3638",
"listing_id": "632334817631822987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Bioleak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e2ddbfa3638.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:08.139413Z"
},
{
"price": 2.84,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "526500790832001689",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:03.309756Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "526501587737507165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:03.309756Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:33.322589Z"
},
{
"price": 21.36,
"skin_id": "skin-11ddb95a9bd7",
"listing_id": "501730992847493381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-11ddb95a9bd7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:39:51.317586Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-12:8+collection-set-overpass:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 10.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 10.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 16.0% $42.94 Firefight 16.0% $34.23 Red Astor 16.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 16.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +780.6% | $104.72 +31.5% | 20.0% | +249.3% | $79.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 18.0% $42.94 Firefight 18.0% $34.23 Red Astor 18.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 18.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +1345.2% | $65.49 +34.9% | 10.0% | +302.0% | $48.54 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 14.0% $42.94 Firefight 14.0% $34.23 Red Astor 14.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 14.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +526.1% | $143.94 +28.5% | 30.0% | +207.5% | $112.04 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 12.0% $42.94 Firefight 12.0% $34.23 Red Astor 12.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 12.0% $15.54 | $701.51 +356.0% | $183.17 +19.1% | 20.0% | +166.5% | $153.84 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×5+The Overpass Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 25.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 25.0% $135.49 Ghost Crusader 10.0% $42.94 Firefight 10.0% $34.23 Red Astor 10.0% $24.32 Re-Entry 10.0% $15.46 | $701.51 +228.0% | $222.38 +4.0% | 25.0% | +127.4% | $213.88 | — |