← Results

The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Battle-Scarred +34.7%Factory New -4.4%Field-Tested +18.8%Minimal Wear +22.7%Well-Worn +8.2%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Cobalt Paisley
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.31
Yeti Camo
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
P2000 | Royal Baroque
2x $0.36
Mint Fan
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
2x $0.38
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
3x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $7.31
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.93
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.48
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
35.0% $1.39
Max Win
$7.31 (+80.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.38 (+8.2%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+66.4%
Cost
$4.05
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $4.05
Ask Price EV $4.38 (+8.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.79 (-6.5%)
Ask Profit $0.33 (+8.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.26 (-6.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+14.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $7.31 (+80.6%)
Worst Case $1.39 (-65.7%)
Volatility +66.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.00
Avg Loss -$2.33
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.39 (-65.7%)
Std Dev $2.69
Avg Norm Float 0.4497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 143h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 09S //TOTAL COST $4.05 //ASK PRICE EV $4.38 //BID PRICE EV $3.79 //ASK PROFIT $0.33 (+8.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.26 (-6.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $7.31 //VOLATILITY +66.4% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.33729,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.931,
      "optimistic_value": 6.84,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 5.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.269832,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.39,
      "optimistic_value": 1.39,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:48.179114Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.314804,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.3135,
      "optimistic_value": 7.24,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:21.447988Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.314804,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.4785,
      "optimistic_value": 2.44,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:06.051967Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_844689b11a3d4bb2fdd038e5",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "525375522204095143",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:42.529009Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:05.099504Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "493850490550208404",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:25.776682Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "518620288314033904",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:25.776682Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "514116688950017490",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:46.600415Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "503983589619410563",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:46.600415Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "503983589619355411",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:53.970833Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620288314051868",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589619183691",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $9.85
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.94
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.15
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
35.0% $1.39
$9.85
+181.4%
$4.72
+34.7%
50.0%+92.8%$3.50—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $24.63
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
35.0% $13.46
$38.92
+83.3%
$26.05
+22.7%
65.0%+50.3%$21.23—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
35.0% $18.08
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $11.82
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
35.0% $5.73
$18.08
+76.5%
$12.17
+18.8%
65.0%+50.9%$10.24—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $9.85
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $6.94
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $2.15
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $1.39
$9.85
+186.4%
$4.53
+31.8%
50.0%+90.4%$3.44—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $9.85
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
45.0% $6.94
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $2.15
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
45.0% $1.38
$9.85
+186.4%
$4.35
+26.4%
50.0%+86.0%$3.44—
FS

TradeUps

Market intelligence and contract tracking for Counter-Strike 2.

TRADEUPS.ORG

support@tradeups.org

© 2026 TradeUps. All rights reserved.

TradeUps is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. We provide analytics and market data only, and do not sell, broker, custody, or transfer Counter-Strike 2 virtual items.