The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Royal Baroque
3x $1.40
Yeti Camo
1x $1.92
Reef Grief
2x $2.23
Cobalt Paisley
1x $3.65
Warm Blooded
3x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Exothermic
15.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
15.0% $24.63
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.85
Max Win
$38.92 (+42.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$26.18 (-4.4%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+38.4%
Cost
$27.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.39
Ask Price EV $26.18 (-4.4%)
Bid Price EV $23.89 (-12.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.21 (-4.4%)
Bid Profit $-3.50 (-12.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.29 (+8.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.50
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+42.1%)
Worst Case $13.85 (-49.4%)
Volatility +38.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$11.53
Avg Loss -$8.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.85 (-49.4%)
Std Dev $10.51
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 94h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 21S //TOTAL COST $27.39 //ASK PRICE EV $26.18 //BID PRICE EV $23.89 //ASK PROFIT $-1.21 (-4.4%) //BID PROFIT $-3.50 (-12.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +38.4% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$38.92
+$11.53
+42.1%
$34.38
+$6.99
+25.5%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$26.79
-$0.60
-2.2%
$25.89
-$1.50
-5.5%
$0.90
3.3%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$24.63
-$2.76
-10.1%
$22.28
-$5.11
-18.7%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$13.85
-$13.54
-49.4%
$13.24
-$14.15
-51.7%
$0.61
4.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.052094999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.041676,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.847,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:29.321781Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.04862199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:27.288825Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.04862199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_844689b11a3d4bb2fdd038e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:21.700539Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "493850490549146908",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:02:03.789596Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "519746135815383200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.215972Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "521997988015579578",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.215972Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:00.931704Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:46.098146Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:46.098146Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.14 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +177.5% | $4.71 +32.5% | 50.0% | +91.8% | $3.55 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Exothermic 15.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.85 | $38.92 +82.6% | $26.18 +22.9% | 65.0% | +49.3% | $21.31 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Exothermic 15.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 | $18.08 +78.4% | $12.10 +19.5% | 65.0% | +51.2% | $10.13 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 15.0% $7.45 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.52 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $7.45 +77.3% | $4.40 +4.7% | 50.0% | +64.8% | $4.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 5.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $2.14 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.42 | $9.85 +186.4% | $4.37 +26.9% | 50.0% | +85.4% | $3.44 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.85 | $38.92 +81.7% | $26.25 +22.5% | 60.0% | +52.4% | $21.42 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 10.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.14 Royal Guard 10.0% $1.41 | $9.85 +108.3% | $5.63 +19.1% | 50.0% | +78.9% | $4.73 | — |