The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Reef Grief
1x $0.25
Yeti Camo
2x $0.29
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.34
Royal Baroque
2x $0.37
Sky Mandala
1x $0.34
Fraise Crane
1x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
15.0% $9.85
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.94
Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.13
Royal Guard
35.0% $1.31
Max Win
$9.85 (+179.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.69 (+32.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+92.9%
Cost
$3.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.53
Ask Price EV $4.69 (+32.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.78 (+7.1%)
Ask Profit $1.16 (+32.7%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+7.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.91 (+25.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.16
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+179.1%)
Worst Case $1.31 (-62.9%)
Volatility +92.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.29
Avg Loss -$1.97
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.31 (-62.9%)
Std Dev $3.28
Avg Norm Float 0.5792
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 141h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 21S //TOTAL COST $3.53 //ASK PRICE EV $4.69 //BID PRICE EV $3.78 //ASK PROFIT $1.16 (+32.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+7.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +92.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
15.0%
$9.85
+$6.32
+179.1%
$6.64
+$3.11
+88.1%
$3.21
32.6%
—
BIG WIN
35.0%
$6.94
+$3.41
+96.7%
$6.03
+$2.50
+70.8%
$0.91
13.2%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$2.13
-$1.40
-39.7%
$1.99
-$1.54
-43.6%
$0.14
6.5%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$1.31
-$2.22
-62.9%
$1.07
-$2.46
-69.7%
$0.24
18.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.43437749999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.9435,
"optimistic_value": 6.8,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 6.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.347502,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.311,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:29.832681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.405419,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.405419,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1285,
"optimistic_value": 2.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:34.742372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_844689b11a3d4bb2fdd038e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "507361289453259733",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:17.087809Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "505109489448724844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.983649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.983649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:01:58.076107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "524249787961450167",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:07.494001Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "512990789044788503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:07.494001Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "503983589619355411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:56.422056Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "505109489448710228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:55.028005Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:35.532241Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "494976390476572746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:18.369338Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Exothermic 15.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +80.8% | $26.22 +21.8% | 65.0% | +48.6% | $21.53 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Exothermic 15.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 | $18.08 +75.8% | $12.10 +17.7% | 65.0% | +50.5% | $10.28 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 15.0% $7.38 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.60 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31 | $7.38 +74.9% | $4.38 +3.8% | 50.0% | +64.5% | $4.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Exothermic 5.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88 | $38.92 +80.0% | $26.32 +21.7% | 55.0% | +55.0% | $21.62 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +79.0% | $26.29 +20.9% | 60.0% | +51.4% | $21.74 | — |