The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Reef Grief
3x $1.31
Royal Baroque
4x $1.40
Warm Blooded
2x $2.27
Earth Mandala
1x $2.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Exothermic
15.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
15.0% $24.63
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.46
Max Win
$38.92 (+83.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$26.05 (+22.7%)
Win %
65.0%
Volatility
+50.3%
Cost
$21.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.23
Ask Price EV $26.05 (+22.7%)
Bid Price EV $23.90 (+12.6%)
Ask Profit $4.82 (+22.7%)
Bid Profit $2.67 (+12.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.15 (+10.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.82
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.67
Risk
Win Probability 65.0%
Loss Probability 35.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+83.3%)
Worst Case $13.46 (-36.6%)
Volatility +50.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$11.59
Avg Loss -$7.77
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.46 (-36.6%)
Std Dev $10.67
Avg Norm Float 0.0931
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 95h 44m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.20 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 09S //TOTAL COST $21.23 //ASK PRICE EV $26.05 //BID PRICE EV $23.90 //ASK PROFIT $4.82 (+22.7%) //BID PROFIT $2.67 (+12.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +50.3% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$38.92
+$17.69
+83.3%
$34.38
+$13.15
+61.9%
$4.54
11.7%
—
WIN
15.0%
$26.79
+$5.56
+26.2%
$25.92
+$4.69
+22.1%
$0.87
3.2%
—
WIN
15.0%
$24.63
+$3.40
+16.0%
$22.28
+$1.05
+4.9%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$13.46
-$7.77
-36.6%
$13.24
-$7.99
-37.6%
$0.22
1.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0698475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.055878000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.4565,
"optimistic_value": 13.25,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:59.944020Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.065191,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:56.814715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.065191,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_844689b11a3d4bb2fdd038e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:25.893899Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:28.331703Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:28.331703Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:28.331703Z"
},
{
"price": 2.2,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "502857689862501388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:14.680265Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "521997988015579578",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:14.680265Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:53.711493Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:07.568797Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:07.568797Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:04.296012Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.39 | $9.85 +181.4% | $4.72 +34.7% | 50.0% | +92.8% | $3.50 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Exothermic 15.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 | $18.08 +76.5% | $12.17 +18.8% | 65.0% | +50.9% | $10.24 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 15.0% $7.31 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.48 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.39 | $7.31 +80.6% | $4.38 +8.2% | 50.0% | +66.4% | $4.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.39 | $9.85 +186.4% | $4.53 +31.8% | 50.0% | +90.4% | $3.44 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 5.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.38 | $9.85 +186.4% | $4.35 +26.4% | 50.0% | +86.0% | $3.44 | — |