The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.42
Mint Fan
3x $0.61
Reef Grief
2x $1.15
Royal Baroque
1x $1.16
Warm Blooded
3x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $18.08
Exothermic
15.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
15.0% $11.82
Royal Guard
35.0% $5.73
Max Win
$18.08 (+76.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.17 (+18.8%)
Win %
65.0%
Volatility
+50.9%
Cost
$10.24
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.24
Ask Price EV $12.17 (+18.8%)
Bid Price EV $10.38 (+1.4%)
Ask Profit $1.93 (+18.8%)
Bid Profit $0.14 (+1.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.79 (+17.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.93
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 65.0%
Loss Probability 35.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+76.5%)
Worst Case $5.73 (-44.1%)
Volatility +50.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$5.39
Avg Loss -$4.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.73 (-44.1%)
Std Dev $5.21
Avg Norm Float 0.1998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.10 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.15 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.08 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 02S //TOTAL COST $10.24 //ASK PRICE EV $12.17 //BID PRICE EV $10.38 //ASK PROFIT $1.93 (+18.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.14 (+1.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +50.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$18.08
+$7.84
+76.5%
$15.21
+$4.97
+48.5%
$2.87
15.9%
—
WIN
15.0%
$13.75
+$3.51
+34.3%
$12.11
+$1.87
+18.3%
$1.64
11.9%
—
PAPER WIN
15.0%
$11.82
+$1.58
+15.4%
$9.69
-$0.55
-5.4%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$5.73
-$4.51
-44.1%
$5.11
-$5.13
-50.1%
$0.62
10.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.1498425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.119874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.7275,
"optimistic_value": 5.64,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:10:14.842875Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.13985299999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.751,
"optimistic_value": 13.66,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:43.269332Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.13985299999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_844689b11a3d4bb2fdd038e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "503983589619355411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:53.970833Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "514116636507281046",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:57:24.647042Z"
},
{
"price": 1.1,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "514116688949444010",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:43.622867Z"
},
{
"price": 1.15,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "514116688949812506",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:25.893899Z"
},
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "505109489448936848",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:28.331703Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "625579418032572382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:43.622867Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:25.893899Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "520872088106733504",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:11.322143Z"
},
{
"price": 1.08,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "508487136895989362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:11.322143Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472738290593603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:11.322143Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.39 | $9.85 +181.4% | $4.72 +34.7% | 50.0% | +92.8% | $3.50 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Exothermic 15.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.46 | $38.92 +83.3% | $26.05 +22.7% | 65.0% | +50.3% | $21.23 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 15.0% $7.31 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.48 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.39 | $7.31 +80.6% | $4.38 +8.2% | 50.0% | +66.4% | $4.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.39 | $9.85 +186.4% | $4.53 +31.8% | 50.0% | +90.4% | $3.44 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 5.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.38 | $9.85 +186.4% | $4.35 +26.4% | 50.0% | +86.0% | $3.44 | — |