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The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Battle-Scarred +24.7%Factory New -12.3%Field-Tested +25.7%Minimal Wear +17.6%Well-Worn +10.3%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
2x $0.34
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
1x $0.40
Shredded
MP9 | Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
P250 | Red Tide
1x $0.27
Rose Hex
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
2x $0.31
Blush Pour
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $9.85
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $4.72
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.91
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.22
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.17
Max Win
$9.85 (+199.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.10 (+24.7%)
Win %
38.3%
Volatility
+79.0%
Cost
$3.29
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $3.29
Ask Price EV $4.10 (+24.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.29 (-0.1%)
Ask Profit $0.81 (+24.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.00 (-0.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.82 (+24.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.81
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.00
Risk
Win Probability 38.3%
Loss Probability 61.7%
Best Case $9.85 (+199.4%)
Worst Case $2.17 (-34.0%)
Volatility +79.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 38.3%
Avg Win +$3.44
Avg Loss -$0.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.17 (-34.0%)
Std Dev $2.60
Avg Norm Float 0.5574
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 138h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 05S //TOTAL COST $3.29 //ASK PRICE EV $4.10 //BID PRICE EV $3.29 //ASK PROFIT $0.81 (+24.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.00 (-0.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.3% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +79.0% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.41801999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 4.724,
      "optimistic_value": 4.71,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 3.86,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:57:01.597106Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.3734312,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 2.9105,
      "optimistic_value": 2.83,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 2.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:53.090121Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.334416,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 2.2235,
      "optimistic_value": 2.22,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 1.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:51.660998Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.39015199999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.39015199999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.1715,
      "optimistic_value": 2.14,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.02,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:55.498417Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_8276bb8703615b572cbf3960",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "528753387757079829",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:11.546669Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:11.546669Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:29.200122Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "496102290328488011",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:35.739830Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
      "listing_id": "519746188258221380",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P250 | Red Tide",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:23.729082Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "492724590626042685",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:28.338512Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "493850490549679492",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:05:50.856399Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "496102290328449059",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:28.338512Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "498354089952651775",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:48.780377Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "508487189339594522",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:48.780377Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $15.94
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $13.87
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $11.82
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $7.21
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.49
$15.94
+90.2%
$10.54
+25.7%
53.3%+49.5%$8.38—
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $24.63
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $16.94
$33.42
+67.8%
$23.42
+17.6%
53.3%+33.6%$19.92—
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $7.95
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.91
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.67
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.22
$7.95
+121.5%
$3.96
+10.3%
38.3%+54.7%$3.59—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
30.0% $15.94
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $13.87
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $11.82
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
30.0% $7.21
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
30.0% $5.34
$15.94
+101.8%
$9.83
+24.4%
40.0%+57.1%$7.90—
FS

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