The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Earth Mandala
2x $0.70
Warm Blooded
1x $1.26
Shredded
3x $0.47
Blush Pour
2x $0.65
Rose Hex
2x $0.82
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $15.94
Exothermic
15.0% $13.38
Sleeping Potion
15.0% $11.82
Glitched Paint
23.3% $7.14
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.49
Max Win
$15.94 (+88.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.45 (+23.6%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+48.6%
Cost
$8.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.45
Ask Price EV $10.45 (+23.6%)
Bid Price EV $9.30 (+10.1%)
Ask Profit $2.00 (+23.6%)
Bid Profit $0.85 (+10.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.15 (+13.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.00
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.85
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $15.94 (+88.7%)
Worst Case $5.49 (-35.0%)
Volatility +48.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 23.3%
Avg Win +$5.61
Avg Loss -$2.13
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.49 (-35.0%)
Std Dev $4.11
Avg Norm Float 0.1999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 138h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.82 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 37S //TOTAL COST $8.45 //ASK PRICE EV $10.45 //BID PRICE EV $9.30 //ASK PROFIT $2.00 (+23.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.85 (+10.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +48.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$15.94
+$7.49
+88.7%
$14.54
+$6.09
+72.1%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
15.0%
$13.38
+$4.93
+58.4%
$12.04
+$3.59
+42.5%
$1.34
10.0%
—
WIN
15.0%
$11.82
+$3.37
+39.9%
$9.69
+$1.24
+14.7%
$2.13
18.0%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$7.14
-$1.31
-15.5%
$6.21
-$2.24
-26.5%
$0.93
13.0%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$5.49
-$2.96
-35.0%
$5.14
-$3.31
-39.2%
$0.35
6.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1499625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1339665,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.1385,
"optimistic_value": 7.1,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:46.620683Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.4944999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 5.47,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:06.459968Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.13996499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.383,
"optimistic_value": 13.11,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:52.975205Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.13996499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8276bb8703615b572cbf3960",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:00.906408Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "528753387757304073",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:59.538857Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:13.017626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:53.168390Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:19.206657Z"
},
{
"price": 0.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "527627435179438172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:43.559077Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "517494388632521590",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:02.937915Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "494976390476529618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "491598638255524202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:43.559077Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "509613089303970831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:02.937915Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Exothermic 15.0% $26.65 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.43 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 | $33.42 +66.2% | $23.52 +16.9% | 53.3% | +32.7% | $20.11 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 15.0% $7.91 Mulberry 23.3% $5.01 Glitched Paint 23.3% $2.93 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.66 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.22 | $7.91 +124.2% | $3.96 +12.1% | 38.3% | +55.2% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Exothermic 5.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.49 | $15.94 +101.5% | $9.83 +24.3% | 40.0% | +56.3% | $7.91 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Exothermic 10.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.02 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 | $15.94 +94.2% | $10.11 +23.1% | 46.7% | +52.6% | $8.21 | — |