← Results

The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Factory New -11.9%Field-Tested +23.6%Minimal Wear +16.9%Well-Worn +12.1%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
3x $2.27
Blush Pour
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
5x $1.53
Rose Hex
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
2x $1.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $26.65
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $24.63
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $17.43
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Max Win
$33.42 (+25.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.52 (-11.9%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+24.6%
Cost
$26.71
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.71
Ask Price EV $23.52 (-11.9%)
Bid Price EV $22.30 (-16.5%)
Ask Profit $-3.19 (-11.9%)
Bid Profit $-4.41 (-16.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.21 (+4.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.19
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.41
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $33.42 (+25.1%)
Worst Case $16.98 (-36.4%)
Volatility +24.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 46.7%
Avg Win +$6.71
Avg Loss -$6.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.98 (-36.4%)
Std Dev $6.57
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 139h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 11S //TOTAL COST $26.71 //ASK PRICE EV $23.52 //BID PRICE EV $22.30 //ASK PROFIT $-3.19 (-11.9%) //BID PROFIT $-4.41 (-16.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +24.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.052455,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 33.418,
      "optimistic_value": 33.25,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 31.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.04685980000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 17.4315,
      "optimistic_value": 17.4,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 16.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:09.181238Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.041964,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 16.977,
      "optimistic_value": 16.83,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 16.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.048958,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.6525,
      "optimistic_value": 26.6,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 25.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:42.529770Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.048958,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_8276bb8703615b572cbf3960",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737055183",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605724248646447",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "526500790836642953",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "502857524064946924",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.67,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "505109323870506140",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.76,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "492724590626165121",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.11,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "528753387757181205",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:01.631887Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "556898911189339489",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.68,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "496102124624203067",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:01.631887Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.72,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "502857524062858564",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:01.631887Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $15.94
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $13.38
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $11.82
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $7.14
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.49
$15.94
+88.7%
$10.45
+23.6%
53.3%+48.6%$8.45—
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $26.65
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $24.63
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $17.43
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
$33.42
+66.2%
$23.52
+16.9%
53.3%+32.7%$20.11—
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $7.91
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.93
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.66
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.22
$7.91
+124.2%
$3.96
+12.1%
38.3%+55.2%$3.53—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
30.0% $15.94
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $13.38
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $11.82
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
30.0% $7.14
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
30.0% $5.49
$15.94
+101.5%
$9.83
+24.3%
40.0%+56.3%$7.91—
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
26.7% $15.94
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $13.38
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $11.82
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
26.7% $7.02
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
26.7% $5.50
$15.94
+94.2%
$10.11
+23.1%
46.7%+52.6%$8.21—
FS

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