The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Fraise Crane
2x $0.37
Earth Mandala
1x $0.43
Shredded
4x $0.26
Blush Pour
3x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
15.0% $7.91
Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.93
Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.66
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.22
Max Win
$7.91 (+124.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.96 (+12.1%)
Win %
38.3%
Volatility
+55.2%
Cost
$3.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.53
Ask Price EV $3.96 (+12.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.58 (+1.5%)
Ask Profit $0.43 (+12.1%)
Bid Profit $0.05 (+1.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.37 (+10.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 38.3%
Loss Probability 61.7%
Best Case $7.91 (+124.2%)
Worst Case $2.22 (-37.0%)
Volatility +55.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 23.3%
Avg Win +$2.61
Avg Loss -$0.93
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.22 (-37.0%)
Std Dev $1.95
Avg Norm Float 0.4490
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 138h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 41S //TOTAL COST $3.53 //ASK PRICE EV $3.96 //BID PRICE EV $3.58 //ASK PROFIT $0.43 (+12.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.05 (+1.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.3% //BEST CASE $7.91 //VOLATILITY +55.2% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$7.91
+$4.38
+124.2%
$7.15
+$3.62
+102.5%
$0.76
9.7%
—
WIN
23.3%
$5.01
+$1.48
+41.8%
$4.66
+$1.13
+32.0%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$2.93
-$0.60
-16.9%
$2.76
-$0.77
-21.8%
$0.17
5.9%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$2.66
-$0.87
-24.5%
$2.25
-$1.28
-36.3%
$0.41
15.5%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$2.22
-$1.31
-37.0%
$1.90
-$1.63
-46.2%
$0.32
14.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3367725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3008501,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9345,
"optimistic_value": 2.84,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:56.507687Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.269418,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.2235,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:35:45.107317Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.31432099999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.914499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.89,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:41.074809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.31432099999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.6635,
"optimistic_value": 2.66,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:57.950743Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8276bb8703615b572cbf3960",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:31.372348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "508487189339806562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:40.177285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123888072173646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:00.906408Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:47.606163Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "515242588554327589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:53.168390Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "493850490549679492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:53.168390Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "496102290328799519",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:19.206657Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "508487189339594522",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:19.206657Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293735613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:19.206657Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "512990789044606523",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:53.168390Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Exothermic 15.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.49 | $15.94 +88.7% | $10.45 +23.6% | 53.3% | +48.6% | $8.45 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Exothermic 15.0% $26.65 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.43 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 | $33.42 +66.2% | $23.52 +16.9% | 53.3% | +32.7% | $20.11 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Exothermic 5.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.49 | $15.94 +101.5% | $9.83 +24.3% | 40.0% | +56.3% | $7.91 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Exothermic 10.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.02 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 | $15.94 +94.2% | $10.11 +23.1% | 46.7% | +52.6% | $8.21 | — |