The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Warm Blooded
3x $2.27
Red Tide
1x $1.11
Blush Pour
4x $1.42
Rose Hex
2x $1.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Exothermic
15.0% $26.65
Sleeping Potion
15.0% $24.63
Glitched Paint
23.3% $17.43
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Max Win
$33.42 (+66.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.52 (+16.9%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+32.7%
Cost
$20.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.11
Ask Price EV $23.52 (+16.9%)
Bid Price EV $22.30 (+10.9%)
Ask Profit $3.41 (+16.9%)
Bid Profit $2.19 (+10.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.21 (+6.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.41
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.19
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $33.42 (+66.2%)
Worst Case $16.98 (-15.6%)
Volatility +32.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$8.93
Avg Loss -$2.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.98 (-15.6%)
Std Dev $6.57
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 139h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Minimal Wear
$1.11 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 36S //TOTAL COST $20.11 //ASK PRICE EV $23.52 //BID PRICE EV $22.30 //ASK PROFIT $3.41 (+16.9%) //BID PROFIT $2.19 (+10.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +32.7% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$33.42
+$13.31
+66.2%
$31.48
+$11.37
+56.5%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
15.0%
$26.65
+$6.54
+32.5%
$25.85
+$5.74
+28.5%
$0.80
3.0%
—
WIN
15.0%
$24.63
+$4.52
+22.5%
$22.28
+$2.17
+10.8%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$17.43
-$2.68
-13.3%
$16.69
-$3.42
-17.0%
$0.74
4.3%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.98
-$3.13
-15.6%
$16.48
-$3.63
-18.1%
$0.50
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0699075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.062450700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.4315,
"optimistic_value": 17.4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:09.181238Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.055926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.065247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.6525,
"optimistic_value": 26.6,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:42.529770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.065247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8276bb8703615b572cbf3960",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 1.11,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "491598690698915666",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:19.661860Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "649222707046356592",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "492724590626165121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z"
},
{
"price": 2.11,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "528753387757181205",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:01.631887Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "556898911189339489",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Exothermic 15.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.49 | $15.94 +88.7% | $10.45 +23.6% | 53.3% | +48.6% | $8.45 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 15.0% $7.91 Mulberry 23.3% $5.01 Glitched Paint 23.3% $2.93 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.66 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.22 | $7.91 +124.2% | $3.96 +12.1% | 38.3% | +55.2% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Exothermic 5.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.49 | $15.94 +101.5% | $9.83 +24.3% | 40.0% | +56.3% | $7.91 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Exothermic 10.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.02 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 | $15.94 +94.2% | $10.11 +23.1% | 46.7% | +52.6% | $8.21 | — |