The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified FN 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Inputs
Downtown
4x $3.54
Galigator
1x $3.91
Amberline
3x $4.09
Urban Sovereign
2x $10.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
20.0% $150.19
Deathgaze
20.0% $39.59
Kintsugi
20.0% $38.44
Kiss♥Love
13.3% $35.36
Ice Coaled
13.3% $27.74
Visions
13.3% $24.93
Max Win
$150.19 (+147.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$57.38 (-5.3%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+77.0%
Cost
$60.60
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $60.60
Ask Price EV $57.38 (-5.3%)
Bid Price EV $53.61 (-11.5%)
Ask Profit $-3.22 (-5.3%)
Bid Profit $-6.99 (-11.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.77 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.22
Bid Slippage Buffer -$6.99
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $150.19 (+147.8%)
Worst Case $24.93 (-58.9%)
Volatility +77.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$89.59
Avg Loss -$26.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $24.93 (-58.9%)
Std Dev $46.69
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 152h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Downtown
—
Factory New
$3.54 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Downtown
—
Factory New
$3.56 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Downtown
—
Factory New
$3.70 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Downtown
—
Factory New
$6.71 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$3.91 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$4.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$4.80 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$10.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$10.06 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Factory New
$10.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 50S //TOTAL COST $60.60 //ASK PRICE EV $57.38 //BID PRICE EV $53.61 //ASK PROFIT $-3.22 (-5.3%) //BID PROFIT $-6.99 (-11.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $150.19 //VOLATILITY +77.0% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$150.19
+$89.59
+147.8%
$135.90
+$75.30
+124.3%
$14.29
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$39.59
-$21.01
-34.7%
$37.78
-$22.82
-37.7%
$1.81
4.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$38.44
-$22.16
-36.6%
$37.31
-$23.29
-38.4%
$1.13
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$35.36
-$25.24
-41.7%
$34.13
-$26.47
-43.7%
$1.23
3.5%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$27.74
-$32.86
-54.2%
$26.54
-$34.06
-56.2%
$1.20
4.3%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$24.93
-$35.67
-58.9%
$24.91
-$35.69
-58.9%
$0.02
0.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 150.193,
"optimistic_value": 149.22,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 135.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:42.904333Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 38.437,
"optimistic_value": 38.08,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 37.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:44.364562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 39.5865,
"optimistic_value": 39.38,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 37.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:17:57.455549Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.053876900000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f10cd3871578",
"realistic_value": 27.741,
"optimistic_value": 27.37,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 26.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:02.666130Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f10cd3871578.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.048979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f1071439b89",
"realistic_value": 24.93,
"optimistic_value": 24.93,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Visions",
"conservative_value": 24.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Visions (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:22.864041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f1071439b89.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f81f65a9d91",
"realistic_value": 35.3585,
"optimistic_value": 34.13,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love",
"conservative_value": 34.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:53.148415Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f81f65a9d91.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_79d1652e6bb4463ea061e9a0",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.54,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "491598524991486410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:09.498038Z"
},
{
"price": 3.56,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "492724424906163081",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:09.498038Z"
},
{
"price": 3.7,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "497227393157467757",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:09.498038Z"
},
{
"price": 6.71,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "500605724252169803",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:09.498038Z"
},
{
"price": 3.91,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "519746241188595248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:57:22.799365Z"
},
{
"price": 4.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "520872141038513460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:48.745056Z"
},
{
"price": 4.8,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514115891843853702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:48.745056Z"
},
{
"price": 10,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235442368021120",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:05.432062Z"
},
{
"price": 10.06,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "503983589620416727",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:05.432062Z"
},
{
"price": 10.23,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "516368541589006010",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:22.231535Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Kintsugi 20.0% $9.44 Deathgaze 20.0% $9.16 Ice Coaled 13.3% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $5.56 Visions 13.3% $5.18 | $35.39 +245.6% | $13.14 +28.3% | 20.0% | +109.8% | $10.24 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Well-Worn | Crane Flight 20.0% $28.87 Kintsugi 20.0% $8.04 Deathgaze 20.0% $8.03 Ice Coaled 13.3% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $5.69 Visions 13.3% $5.18 | $28.87 +193.7% | $11.35 +15.4% | 20.0% | +89.8% | $9.83 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crane Flight 20.0% $60.44 Kintsugi 20.0% $16.60 Deathgaze 20.0% $16.56 Ice Coaled 13.3% $11.71 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $9.35 Visions 13.3% $7.73 | $60.44 +195.7% | $22.56 +10.4% | 20.0% | +94.0% | $20.44 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 23.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 23.3% $9.44 Deathgaze 23.3% $9.16 Ice Coaled 10.0% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $5.56 Visions 10.0% $5.18 | $35.39 +214.8% | $14.35 +27.7% | 23.3% | +104.1% | $11.24 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 26.7% $35.39 Kintsugi 26.7% $9.44 Deathgaze 26.7% $9.16 Ice Coaled 6.7% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $5.56 Visions 6.7% $5.08 | $35.39 +189.1% | $15.56 +27.1% | 26.7% | +98.3% | $12.24 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 16.7% $35.39 Kintsugi 16.7% $9.44 Deathgaze 16.7% $9.16 Ice Coaled 16.7% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $5.56 Visions 16.7% $5.08 | $35.39 +272.1% | $11.91 +25.2% | 16.7% | +111.8% | $9.51 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 30.0% $35.39 Kintsugi 30.0% $9.44 Deathgaze 30.0% $9.16 Ice Coaled 3.3% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 3.3% $5.56 Visions 3.3% $5.18 | $35.39 +161.0% | $16.78 +23.8% | 30.0% | +90.2% | $13.56 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 13.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 13.3% $9.44 Deathgaze 13.3% $9.16 Ice Coaled 20.0% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 20.0% $5.56 Visions 20.0% $5.18 | $35.39 +300.8% | $10.71 +21.3% | 40.0% | +111.1% | $8.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Electrum  16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing  16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.28 Amberline 16.0% $3.14 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.11 Flora Carnivora  4.0% $1.71 | $7.00 +113.3% | $3.72 +13.5% | 48.0% | +46.2% | $3.28 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Field-Tested | Fully Tuned  30.0% $106.25 Queen's Gambit  30.0% $94.52 Printstream  20.0% $55.60 Chromatic Aberration  20.0% $52.52 | $106.25 +61.4% | $81.85 +24.4% | 60.0% | +35.2% | $65.82 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Covert → Extraordinary Well-Worn | Ultra Violent  3.6% $1,699.39 Occult  3.6% $1,063.78 Nocts  0.8% $964.25 Cloud Chaser  3.6% $887.82 Pillow Punchers  3.6% $639.66 Slingshot  0.8% $606.43 | $1,699.39 +369.8% | $415.27 +14.8% | 35.2% | +82.0% | $361.75 | — |