The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified WW 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn
Inputs
Downtown
3x $0.63
Dragon Tech
1x $0.70
Amberline
6x $1.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
20.0% $28.87
Kintsugi
20.0% $8.04
Deathgaze
20.0% $8.03
Ice Coaled
13.3% $6.83
Kiss♥Love
13.3% $5.69
Visions
13.3% $5.18
Max Win
$28.87 (+193.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.35 (+15.4%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+89.8%
Cost
$9.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.83
Ask Price EV $11.35 (+15.4%)
Bid Price EV $10.96 (+11.5%)
Ask Profit $1.52 (+15.4%)
Bid Profit $1.13 (+11.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+3.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.13
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $28.87 (+193.7%)
Worst Case $5.18 (-47.3%)
Volatility +89.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$19.04
Avg Loss -$2.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.18 (-47.3%)
Std Dev $8.82
Avg Norm Float 0.4352
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 153h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Downtown
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Downtown
—
Field-Tested
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Downtown
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 38S //TOTAL COST $9.83 //ASK PRICE EV $11.35 //BID PRICE EV $10.96 //ASK PROFIT $1.52 (+15.4%) //BID PROFIT $1.13 (+11.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $28.87 //VOLATILITY +89.8% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$28.87
+$19.04
+193.7%
$28.15
+$18.32
+186.4%
$0.72
2.5%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$8.04
-$1.79
-18.2%
$8.00
-$1.83
-18.6%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$8.03
-$1.80
-18.3%
$7.98
-$1.85
-18.8%
$0.05
0.6%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$6.83
-$3.00
-30.5%
$6.25
-$3.58
-36.4%
$0.58
8.5%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$5.69
-$4.14
-42.1%
$4.75
-$5.08
-51.7%
$0.94
16.5%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$5.18
-$4.65
-47.3%
$5.03
-$4.80
-48.8%
$0.15
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.43524,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 28.8675,
"optimistic_value": 28.64,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 28.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:26.391960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.43524,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 8.0445,
"optimistic_value": 8.02,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:13.291579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.43524,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 8.031,
"optimistic_value": 8.01,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 7.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:05.378602Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3351348,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f10cd3871578",
"realistic_value": 6.829,
"optimistic_value": 6.78,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 6.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:32.915678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f10cd3871578.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.304668,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f1071439b89",
"realistic_value": 5.1770000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.17,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Visions",
"conservative_value": 5.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:58.095452Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f1071439b89.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.43524,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f81f65a9d91",
"realistic_value": 5.69,
"optimistic_value": 5.69,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love",
"conservative_value": 4.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T09:37:43.659780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f81f65a9d91.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_79d1652e6bb4463ea061e9a0",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "491598743581007090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:32.889769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "514116741797833746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:32.889769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "499479937455296137",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:32.889769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"listing_id": "508487242222389494",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:05.563110Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "520872141038402112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:22.218260Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375740885759875",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:22.218260Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "510739041954124402",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:22.218260Z"
},
{
"price": 1.28,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "527627540538357428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:22.404066Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "509613142168430751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:22.404066Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753440604833517",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:22.404066Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Kintsugi 20.0% $9.44 Deathgaze 20.0% $9.16 Ice Coaled 13.3% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $5.56 Visions 13.3% $5.18 | $35.39 +245.6% | $13.14 +28.3% | 20.0% | +109.8% | $10.24 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crane Flight 20.0% $60.44 Kintsugi 20.0% $16.60 Deathgaze 20.0% $16.56 Ice Coaled 13.3% $11.71 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $9.35 Visions 13.3% $7.73 | $60.44 +195.7% | $22.56 +10.4% | 20.0% | +94.0% | $20.44 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 23.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 23.3% $9.44 Deathgaze 23.3% $9.16 Ice Coaled 10.0% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $5.56 Visions 10.0% $5.18 | $35.39 +214.8% | $14.35 +27.7% | 23.3% | +104.1% | $11.24 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 26.7% $35.39 Kintsugi 26.7% $9.44 Deathgaze 26.7% $9.16 Ice Coaled 6.7% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $5.56 Visions 6.7% $5.08 | $35.39 +189.1% | $15.56 +27.1% | 26.7% | +98.3% | $12.24 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 16.7% $35.39 Kintsugi 16.7% $9.44 Deathgaze 16.7% $9.16 Ice Coaled 16.7% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $5.56 Visions 16.7% $5.08 | $35.39 +272.1% | $11.91 +25.2% | 16.7% | +111.8% | $9.51 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 30.0% $35.39 Kintsugi 30.0% $9.44 Deathgaze 30.0% $9.16 Ice Coaled 3.3% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 3.3% $5.56 Visions 3.3% $5.18 | $35.39 +161.0% | $16.78 +23.8% | 30.0% | +90.2% | $13.56 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 13.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 13.3% $9.44 Deathgaze 13.3% $9.16 Ice Coaled 20.0% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 20.0% $5.56 Visions 20.0% $5.18 | $35.39 +300.8% | $10.71 +21.3% | 40.0% | +111.1% | $8.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Electrum  16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing  16.0% $5.02 Galigator  16.0% $3.28 Amberline 16.0% $3.14 Urban Sovereign  16.0% $3.11 Flora Carnivora  4.0% $1.71 | $7.00 +113.3% | $3.72 +13.5% | 48.0% | +46.2% | $3.28 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Field-Tested | Fully Tuned  30.0% $106.25 Queen's Gambit  30.0% $94.52 Printstream  20.0% $55.60 Chromatic Aberration  20.0% $52.52 | $106.25 +61.4% | $81.85 +24.4% | 60.0% | +35.2% | $65.82 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Covert → Extraordinary Well-Worn | Ultra Violent  3.6% $1,699.39 Occult  3.6% $1,063.78 Nocts  0.8% $964.25 Cloud Chaser  3.6% $887.82 Pillow Punchers  3.6% $639.66 Slingshot  0.8% $606.43 | $1,699.39 +369.8% | $415.27 +14.8% | 35.2% | +82.0% | $361.75 | — |