The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified FT 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested
Inputs
Dragon Tech
2x $0.64
Downtown
2x $0.66
Amberline
5x $1.04
Urban Sovereign
1x $1.79
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
20.0% $35.39
Kintsugi
20.0% $9.44
Deathgaze
20.0% $9.03
Ice Coaled
13.3% $6.83
Kiss♥Love
13.3% $5.78
Visions
13.3% $5.21
Max Win
$35.39 (+230.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.15 (+22.9%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+104.9%
Cost
$10.70
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.70
Ask Price EV $13.15 (+22.9%)
Bid Price EV $12.29 (+14.9%)
Ask Profit $2.45 (+22.9%)
Bid Profit $1.59 (+14.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.86 (+8.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.45
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.59
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $35.39 (+230.7%)
Worst Case $5.21 (-51.3%)
Volatility +104.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$24.69
Avg Loss -$3.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.21 (-51.3%)
Std Dev $11.23
Avg Norm Float 0.3756
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 152h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
—
Field-Tested
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Downtown
—
Field-Tested
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Downtown
—
Field-Tested
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 46S //TOTAL COST $10.70 //ASK PRICE EV $13.15 //BID PRICE EV $12.29 //ASK PROFIT $2.45 (+22.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.59 (+14.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $35.39 //VOLATILITY +104.9% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$35.39
+$24.69
+230.7%
$32.98
+$22.28
+208.2%
$2.41
6.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$9.44
-$1.26
-11.8%
$8.77
-$1.93
-18.0%
$0.67
7.1%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$9.03
-$1.67
-15.6%
$8.71
-$1.99
-18.6%
$0.32
3.6%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$6.83
-$3.87
-36.2%
$6.25
-$4.45
-41.6%
$0.58
8.5%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$5.78
-$4.92
-46.0%
$5.23
-$5.47
-51.1%
$0.55
9.5%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$5.21
-$5.49
-51.3%
$5.03
-$5.67
-53.0%
$0.18
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.37565,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 35.3885,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 32.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:07:39.352821Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.37565,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 9.44,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 8.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:06.545022Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.37565,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 9.033,
"optimistic_value": 8.9,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 8.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:32.532809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2892505,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f10cd3871578",
"realistic_value": 6.829,
"optimistic_value": 6.78,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 6.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:32.915678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f10cd3871578.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.262955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f1071439b89",
"realistic_value": 5.212,
"optimistic_value": 5.17,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Visions",
"conservative_value": 5.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:49.000511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f1071439b89.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.37565,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f81f65a9d91",
"realistic_value": 5.7815,
"optimistic_value": 5.75,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love",
"conservative_value": 5.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:40.960562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f81f65a9d91.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_79d1652e6bb4463ea061e9a0",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"listing_id": "509613142167932331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:54.470354Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "496102343225774819",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:37.336230Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"listing_id": "521997935569944954",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Downtown",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:37.336230Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"listing_id": "508487242222389494",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:54.470354Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "529879340432503740",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:40.778413Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375740885759875",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:40.778413Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "510739041954124402",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:40.778413Z"
},
{
"price": 1.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472843632947747",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:49.916831Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "498354142900519807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:24.821319Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "509613142168293843",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:53.210018Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Well-Worn | Crane Flight 20.0% $28.87 Deathgaze 20.0% $8.12 Kintsugi 20.0% $8.05 Ice Coaled 13.3% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $5.69 Visions 13.3% $5.21 | $28.87 +178.9% | $11.37 +9.9% | 20.0% | +85.1% | $10.35 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crane Flight 20.0% $60.44 Deathgaze 20.0% $16.74 Kintsugi 20.0% $16.60 Ice Coaled 13.3% $11.71 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $9.35 Visions 13.3% $7.80 | $60.44 +191.8% | $22.60 +9.1% | 20.0% | +92.7% | $20.71 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Battle-Scarred | Crane Flight 20.0% $27.86 Ice Coaled 13.3% $8.43 Kintsugi 20.0% $6.10 Deathgaze 20.0% $5.93 Visions 13.3% $5.21 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $4.67 | $27.86 +172.8% | $10.42 +2.0% | 20.0% | +86.0% | $10.21 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 13.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 13.3% $9.44 Deathgaze 13.3% $9.03 Ice Coaled 20.0% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 20.0% $5.78 Visions 20.0% $5.21 | $35.39 +312.5% | $10.75 +25.2% | 40.0% | +114.0% | $8.58 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 16.7% $35.39 Kintsugi 16.7% $9.44 Deathgaze 16.7% $9.03 Ice Coaled 16.7% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $5.78 Visions 16.7% $5.21 | $35.39 +266.7% | $11.95 +23.8% | 16.7% | +109.8% | $9.65 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 23.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 23.3% $9.44 Deathgaze 23.3% $9.03 Ice Coaled 10.0% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $5.78 Visions 10.0% $5.21 | $35.39 +200.7% | $14.35 +21.9% | 23.3% | +99.4% | $11.77 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 26.7% $35.39 Kintsugi 26.7% $9.44 Deathgaze 26.7% $9.03 Ice Coaled 6.7% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $5.78 Visions 6.7% $5.21 | $35.39 +176.7% | $15.55 +21.6% | 26.7% | +94.1% | $12.79 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 30.0% $35.39 Kintsugi 30.0% $9.44 Deathgaze 30.0% $9.03 Ice Coaled 3.3% $6.83 Kiss♥Love 3.3% $5.78 Visions 3.3% $5.21 | $35.39 +139.3% | $16.75 +13.3% | 30.0% | +82.8% | $14.79 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Electrum  16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing  16.0% $5.02 Galigator  16.0% $3.41 Amberline 16.0% $3.14 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.10 Flora Carnivora  4.0% $1.71 | $7.00 +107.0% | $3.75 +10.8% | 48.0% | +44.5% | $3.38 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Field-Tested | Fully Tuned  30.0% $106.25 Queen's Gambit  30.0% $93.99 Printstream  20.0% $55.60 Chromatic Aberration  20.0% $51.44 | $106.25 +60.6% | $81.48 +23.2% | 60.0% | +35.3% | $66.16 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Covert → Extraordinary Well-Worn | Ultra Violent  3.6% $1,699.39 Occult  3.6% $1,063.78 Nocts  0.8% $964.25 Cloud Chaser  3.6% $887.82 Pillow Punchers  3.6% $639.66 Slingshot  0.8% $606.43 | $1,699.39 +372.2% | $415.27 +15.4% | 35.2% | +82.4% | $359.90 | — |