The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Memorial
3x $0.13
Warm Blooded
5x $0.36
Fraise Crane
1x $0.48
Earth Mandala
1x $0.52
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $7.15
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.56
Serpent Strike
6.0% $0.77
Control
6.0% $0.77
Tosai
6.0% $0.71
Wave Breaker
6.0% $0.70
Max Win
$7.15 (+94.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.62 (-1.4%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+73.4%
Cost
$3.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.67
Ask Price EV $3.62 (-1.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.29 (-10.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.05 (-1.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.38 (-10.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+9.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.05
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $7.15 (+94.8%)
Worst Case $0.69 (-81.1%)
Volatility +73.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$3.48
Avg Loss -$1.95
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.69 (-81.1%)
Std Dev $2.69
Avg Norm Float 0.4232
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 144h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Well-Worn
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 46S //TOTAL COST $3.67 //ASK PRICE EV $3.62 //BID PRICE EV $3.29 //ASK PROFIT $-0.05 (-1.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-10.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $7.15 //VOLATILITY +73.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$7.15
+$3.48
+94.8%
$6.60
+$2.93
+79.8%
$0.55
7.7%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$2.56
-$1.11
-30.1%
$2.25
-$1.42
-38.7%
$0.31
12.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$2.90
-78.9%
$0.66
-$3.01
-82.0%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$2.90
-79.0%
$0.66
-$3.01
-82.0%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.96
-80.6%
$0.69
-$2.98
-81.2%
$0.02
2.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$2.97
-80.9%
$0.57
-$3.10
-84.5%
$0.13
18.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.69
-$2.98
-81.1%
$0.60
-$3.07
-83.7%
$0.09
13.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.29624,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.1475,
"optimistic_value": 6.85,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:13.311211Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.29624,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5639999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:09.467393Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.241224,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.338134684,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.4232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.6934999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:39:54.837732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.4022723368,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:15:52.402148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.29624,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:52.859090Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_75b075025c55344fabe2aed4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "518619491409712468",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:41:09.943320Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "501731789729496833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:31.194832Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:31.194832Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605889841763211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "512990789045324795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "521997988016181858",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789730622481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:18.670364Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "502857689862889576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:01.710864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "497228137697395481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.52 Tosai 6.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $13.92 +90.4% | $9.31 +27.4% | 70.0% | +69.6% | $7.31 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Tosai 6.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 6.0% $1.85 Control 6.0% $1.67 | $26.56 +69.6% | $18.74 +19.7% | 70.0% | +61.6% | $15.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.54 Tosai 10.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $13.56 +158.3% | $6.86 +30.7% | 50.0% | +105.4% | $5.25 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.54 Tosai 12.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $13.58 +209.2% | $5.69 +29.6% | 40.0% | +125.1% | $4.39 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.52 Tosai 8.0% $1.24 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $13.94 +118.8% | $8.13 +27.7% | 60.0% | +86.2% | $6.37 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.54 Tosai 14.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $13.58 +252.6% | $4.52 +17.5% | 30.0% | +134.8% | $3.85 | — |