The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
PC-GRN
2x $0.47
Resupply
1x $0.51
Warm Blooded
2x $1.26
Sky Mandala
3x $1.76
Earth Mandala
2x $2.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.56
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Tosai
6.0% $4.31
Serpent Strike
6.0% $4.28
Rising Sun
6.0% $1.85
Control
6.0% $1.67
Max Win
$26.56 (+69.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.74 (+19.7%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+67.2%
Cost
$15.66
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.66
Ask Price EV $18.74 (+19.7%)
Bid Price EV $17.70 (+13.0%)
Ask Profit $3.08 (+19.7%)
Bid Profit $2.04 (+13.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.04 (+6.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.08
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.04
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.56 (+69.6%)
Worst Case $1.63 (-89.6%)
Volatility +67.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$9.93
Avg Loss -$12.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.63 (-89.6%)
Std Dev $10.52
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 24h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$2.07 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 46S //TOTAL COST $15.66 //ASK PRICE EV $18.74 //BID PRICE EV $17.70 //ASK PROFIT $3.08 (+19.7%) //BID PROFIT $2.04 (+13.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.56 //VOLATILITY +67.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$26.56
+$10.90
+69.6%
$26.03
+$10.37
+66.2%
$0.52
2.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$24.63
+$8.97
+57.3%
$22.28
+$6.62
+42.3%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$4.31
-$11.35
-72.5%
$4.30
-$11.36
-72.5%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.28
-$11.38
-72.7%
$4.23
-$11.43
-73.0%
$0.05
1.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.85
-$13.81
-88.2%
$1.76
-$13.90
-88.8%
$0.09
5.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.67
-$13.99
-89.4%
$1.35
-$14.31
-91.4%
$0.32
19.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.63
-$14.03
-89.6%
$1.55
-$14.11
-90.1%
$0.08
4.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.069874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.580467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.069874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0568974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.28,
"optimistic_value": 4.28,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:56:13.498279Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0797556809,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.6669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:19:36.262895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.854,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:04.574148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09488380118,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.6275,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:00.923559Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.069874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:46.556588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_75b075025c55344fabe2aed4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "523123835629211698",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:33.202779Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:39.067960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "528753335313940041",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:33.202779Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.410174Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "525375688037418019",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:39.851805Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "623327618334919058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:39.851805Z"
},
{
"price": 2.07,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "516367691480150330",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:39.851805Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.52 Tosai 6.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $13.92 +90.4% | $9.31 +27.4% | 70.0% | +69.6% | $7.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.54 Tosai 10.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $13.56 +158.3% | $6.86 +30.7% | 50.0% | +105.4% | $5.25 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.54 Tosai 12.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $13.58 +209.2% | $5.69 +29.6% | 40.0% | +125.1% | $4.39 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.52 Tosai 8.0% $1.24 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $13.94 +118.8% | $8.13 +27.7% | 60.0% | +86.2% | $6.37 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.54 Tosai 14.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $13.58 +252.6% | $4.52 +17.5% | 30.0% | +134.8% | $3.85 | — |