The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Resupply
2x $0.51
PC-GRN
1x $0.57
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Warm Blooded
3x $2.36
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.56
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Rising Sun
6.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
6.0% $8.82
Control
6.0% $8.00
Tosai
6.0% $4.31
Max Win
$26.56 (+20.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.99 (-9.1%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+39.5%
Cost
$21.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.99
Ask Price EV $19.99 (-9.1%)
Bid Price EV $18.97 (-13.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.00 (-9.1%)
Bid Profit $-3.02 (-13.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.02 (+4.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.00
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.02
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.56 (+20.8%)
Worst Case $4.28 (-80.5%)
Volatility +39.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.60
Avg Loss -$15.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.28 (-80.5%)
Std Dev $8.68
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 24h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.69 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 14S //TOTAL COST $21.99 //ASK PRICE EV $19.99 //BID PRICE EV $18.97 //ASK PROFIT $-2.00 (-9.1%) //BID PROFIT $-3.02 (-13.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.56 //VOLATILITY +39.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.56
+$4.56
+20.8%
$26.03
+$4.04
+18.4%
$0.52
2.0%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$24.63
+$2.64
+12.0%
$22.28
+$0.29
+1.3%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.18
-$12.81
-58.3%
$9.00
-$12.99
-59.1%
$0.18
2.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$8.82
-$13.17
-59.9%
$8.78
-$13.21
-60.1%
$0.04
0.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$8.00
-$13.99
-63.6%
$7.98
-$14.01
-63.7%
$0.02
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.31
-$17.68
-80.4%
$4.30
-$17.69
-80.4%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.28
-$17.71
-80.5%
$4.23
-$17.76
-80.8%
$0.05
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.580467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.039877199999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.28,
"optimistic_value": 4.28,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:56:13.498279Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055897690199999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.997,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:33.799603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.1805,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:40.409823Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06650040803999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.8175,
"optimistic_value": 8.8,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:04.650797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:46.556588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_75b075025c55344fabe2aed4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:39.067960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "528753335313940041",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:33.202779Z"
},
{
"price": 1.69,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "511864888984897605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:47.620630Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.714476Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.52 Tosai 6.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $13.92 +90.4% | $9.31 +27.4% | 70.0% | +69.6% | $7.31 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Tosai 6.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 6.0% $1.85 Control 6.0% $1.67 | $26.56 +69.6% | $18.74 +19.7% | 70.0% | +61.6% | $15.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.54 Tosai 10.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $13.56 +158.3% | $6.86 +30.7% | 50.0% | +105.4% | $5.25 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.54 Tosai 12.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $13.58 +209.2% | $5.69 +29.6% | 40.0% | +125.1% | $4.39 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.52 Tosai 8.0% $1.24 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $13.94 +118.8% | $8.13 +27.7% | 60.0% | +86.2% | $6.37 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.54 Tosai 14.0% $1.27 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $13.58 +252.6% | $4.52 +17.5% | 30.0% | +134.8% | $3.85 | — |