The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Memorial
1x $0.14
Sure Grip
2x $0.29
Sky Mandala
1x $0.47
Warm Blooded
5x $0.54
Earth Mandala
1x $1.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $13.56
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $11.82
Serpent Strike
6.0% $1.48
Tosai
6.0% $1.34
Rising Sun
6.0% $0.79
Control
6.0% $0.77
Max Win
$13.56 (+86.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.19 (+26.6%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+74.4%
Cost
$7.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.26
Ask Price EV $9.19 (+26.6%)
Bid Price EV $7.95 (+9.4%)
Ask Profit $1.93 (+26.6%)
Bid Profit $0.69 (+9.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.25 (+17.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.93
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.69
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $13.56 (+86.8%)
Worst Case $0.73 (-89.9%)
Volatility +74.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.43
Avg Loss -$6.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.73 (-89.9%)
Std Dev $5.40
Avg Norm Float 0.2141
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 54h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.08 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 40S //TOTAL COST $7.26 //ASK PRICE EV $9.19 //BID PRICE EV $7.95 //ASK PROFIT $1.93 (+26.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.69 (+9.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $13.56 //VOLATILITY +74.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$13.56
+$6.30
+86.8%
$12.22
+$4.96
+68.3%
$1.34
9.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$11.82
+$4.56
+62.8%
$9.69
+$2.43
+33.5%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.48
-$5.78
-79.5%
$1.33
-$5.93
-81.7%
$0.15
10.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$1.34
-$5.92
-81.6%
$1.20
-$6.06
-83.5%
$0.14
10.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.79
-$6.47
-89.1%
$0.72
-$6.54
-90.1%
$0.07
8.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$6.49
-89.4%
$0.66
-$6.60
-90.9%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.73
-$6.53
-89.9%
$0.70
-$6.56
-90.4%
$0.03
4.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14989099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.5615,
"optimistic_value": 13.39,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:29.353185Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14989099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.12205409999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 1.4849999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.45,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:50.524448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.17108879935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21413,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:22:23.659961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.20354105736999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7304999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:33:10.292394Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14989099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.338,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:14.101892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_75b075025c55344fabe2aed4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "501731789729496833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:54.770609Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "526501587737913569",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:59.745427Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "491598690699416462",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:59.745427Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "490472790737714703",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:46.048994Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "497228137697395481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290328584671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:35.163110Z"
},
{
"price": 1.08,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "508487136895989362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:35.163110Z"
},
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "499479937454533873",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:35.163110Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:50.011342Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Tosai 6.0% $4.32 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.26 Rising Sun 6.0% $1.79 Control 6.0% $1.67 | $26.82 +71.9% | $18.82 +20.7% | 70.0% | +62.3% | $15.60 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.65 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.46 Serpent Strike 6.0% $0.77 Control 6.0% $0.77 Wave Breaker 6.0% $0.70 Tosai 6.0% $0.70 | $7.65 +115.5% | $3.75 +5.7% | 35.0% | +80.1% | $3.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.54 Tosai 8.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $13.94 +128.9% | $8.14 +33.7% | 60.0% | +89.9% | $6.09 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Serpent Strike 16.0% $1.54 Tosai 16.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 16.0% $0.79 Control 16.0% $0.77 | $13.94 +399.7% | $3.40 +22.0% | 20.0% | +166.7% | $2.79 | — |