The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Analog Input
2x $4.38
Just Smile
1x $9.56
Urban Sovereign
4x $4.68
Amberline
1x $6.64
Galigator
2x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
23.3% $290.04
Jawbreaker
10.0% $76.51
Kintsugi
23.3% $65.51
Black Lotus
10.0% $62.28
Deathgaze
23.3% $61.47
Olympus
10.0% $29.18
Max Win
$290.04 (+240.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$114.10 (+33.9%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+114.7%
Cost
$85.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $85.19
Ask Price EV $114.10 (+33.9%)
Bid Price EV $94.29 (+10.7%)
Ask Profit $28.91 (+33.9%)
Bid Profit $9.10 (+10.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $19.81 (+23.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$28.91
Bid Slippage Buffer +$9.10
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+240.5%)
Worst Case $29.18 (-65.7%)
Volatility +114.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 43.3%
Avg Win +$204.85
Avg Loss -$24.64
Bottom 5% Outcome $29.18 (-65.7%)
Std Dev $97.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 6h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Analog Input
—
Factory New
$4.38 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Analog Input
—
Factory New
$5.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Just Smile
—
Factory New
$9.56 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.68 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 07S //TOTAL COST $85.19 //ASK PRICE EV $114.10 //BID PRICE EV $94.29 //ASK PROFIT $28.91 (+33.9%) //BID PROFIT $9.10 (+10.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +114.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$290.04
+$204.85
+240.5%
$229.11
+$143.92
+168.9%
$60.93
21.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$76.51
-$8.68
-10.2%
$66.21
-$18.98
-22.3%
$10.30
13.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$65.51
-$19.68
-23.1%
$55.11
-$30.08
-35.3%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$62.28
-$22.91
-26.9%
$55.85
-$29.34
-34.4%
$6.43
10.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$61.47
-$23.72
-27.8%
$55.38
-$29.81
-35.0%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$29.18
-$56.01
-65.7%
$28.49
-$56.70
-66.6%
$0.69
2.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.715369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:58.530181Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-63c1d72b8501",
"realistic_value": 62.275499999999994,
"optimistic_value": 61.04,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Black Lotus",
"conservative_value": 55.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.355310Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-63c1d72b8501.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803657465fa6",
"realistic_value": 76.5075,
"optimistic_value": 75.72,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Jawbreaker",
"conservative_value": 66.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:49.250032Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803657465fa6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0468732,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb2feb216c5",
"realistic_value": 29.184,
"optimistic_value": 28.75,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Olympus",
"conservative_value": 28.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:44.998636Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb2feb216c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_73b807b036eb4a883feca8ba",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"listing_id": "498354037508580235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:12.539016Z"
},
{
"price": 5.75,
"skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"listing_id": "559150711018628016",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:12.539016Z"
},
{
"price": 9.56,
"skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"listing_id": "492724538182080945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:48.815597Z"
},
{
"price": 4.68,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "529879287551222028",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:01.068828Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.158952Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.158952Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $63.86 Black Lotus 10.0% $23.51 Jawbreaker 10.0% $14.90 Kintsugi 23.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 23.3% $11.91 Olympus 10.0% $8.96 | $63.86 +204.2% | $25.37 +20.9% | 33.3% | +102.6% | $20.99 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $126.41 Black Lotus 10.0% $37.06 Jawbreaker 10.0% $26.45 Kintsugi 23.3% $22.62 Deathgaze 23.3% $20.41 Olympus 10.0% $15.72 | $126.41 +200.1% | $47.46 +12.6% | 23.3% | +104.1% | $42.13 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Jawbreaker 13.3% $76.51 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Black Lotus 13.3% $62.28 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Olympus 13.3% $29.18 | $290.04 +266.3% | $105.80 +33.6% | 20.0% | +117.5% | $79.19 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Jawbreaker 16.7% $76.51 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Black Lotus 16.7% $62.28 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 Olympus 16.7% $29.18 | $290.04 +286.7% | $97.50 +30.0% | 33.3% | +116.4% | $75.00 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Jawbreaker 20.0% $76.51 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Black Lotus 20.0% $62.28 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Olympus 20.0% $29.18 | $290.04 +308.0% | $89.20 +25.5% | 33.3% | +113.0% | $71.09 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Black Lotus 23.3% $23.51 Jawbreaker 23.3% $14.90 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.60 Olympus 23.3% $8.96 | $63.86 +291.8% | $19.86 +21.9% | 33.3% | +95.5% | $16.30 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Black Lotus 26.7% $23.51 Jawbreaker 26.7% $14.90 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.60 Olympus 26.7% $8.96 | $63.86 +316.0% | $18.51 +20.6% | 33.3% | +86.7% | $15.35 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Black Lotus 30.0% $23.51 Jawbreaker 30.0% $14.90 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.91 Olympus 30.0% $8.96 | $63.86 +339.5% | $17.16 +18.1% | 63.3% | +71.6% | $14.53 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum  14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing  14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 Etch Lord  6.0% $2.47 | $10.69 +233.1% | $4.24 +32.0% | 56.0% | +82.1% | $3.21 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Inheritance  5.0% $480.22 Chrome Cannon  5.0% $297.24 | $843.46 +61.2% | $636.64 +21.7% | 45.0% | +36.6% | $523.12 | — |