The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Small Game
1x $1.12
Alpine Camo
1x $1.70
Aeolian Light
3x $0.93
Creep
2x $1.75
Grip Tape
2x $2.14
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
40.0% $26.93
Crimson Foil
6.7% $18.99
Arctic Tri-Tone
6.7% $18.82
Trace Lock
40.0% $14.39
Heat Treated
6.7% $12.50
Max Win
$26.93 (+52.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.88 (+12.2%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+33.7%
Cost
$17.72
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.72
Ask Price EV $19.88 (+12.2%)
Bid Price EV $19.23 (+8.5%)
Ask Profit $2.16 (+12.2%)
Bid Profit $1.51 (+8.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.65 (+3.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.16
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.51
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $26.93 (+52.0%)
Worst Case $12.50 (-29.5%)
Volatility +33.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 6.7%
Avg Win +$7.20
Avg Loss -$3.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $12.50 (-29.5%)
Std Dev $5.98
Avg Norm Float 0.0931
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 13h 47m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Small Game
—
Minimal Wear
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Alpine Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 57S //TOTAL COST $17.72 //ASK PRICE EV $19.88 //BID PRICE EV $19.23 //ASK PROFIT $2.16 (+12.2%) //BID PROFIT $1.51 (+8.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +33.7% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
40.0%
$26.93
+$9.21
+52.0%
$26.63
+$8.91
+50.3%
$0.30
1.1%
—
SMALL WIN
6.7%
$18.99
+$1.27
+7.2%
$18.59
+$0.87
+4.9%
$0.40
2.1%
—
SMALL WIN
6.7%
$18.82
+$1.10
+6.2%
$18.78
+$1.06
+6.0%
$0.04
0.2%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$14.39
-$3.33
-18.8%
$13.16
-$4.56
-25.7%
$1.22
8.5%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$12.50
-$5.22
-29.5%
$12.37
-$5.35
-30.2%
$0.13
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.0698475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.065191,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.385,
"optimistic_value": 14.35,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:14.291603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09313,
"output_skin_id": "skin-277f6e42830d",
"realistic_value": 12.497,
"optimistic_value": 12.49,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated",
"conservative_value": 12.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:02.435568Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-277f6e42830d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.055878000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-209298d0eb05",
"realistic_value": 18.817,
"optimistic_value": 18.81,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone",
"conservative_value": 18.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:05.259484Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-209298d0eb05.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0633284,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8ea306517618",
"realistic_value": 18.9875,
"optimistic_value": 18.97,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil",
"conservative_value": 18.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:55.991126Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ea306517618.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_60e97eb578f4d97a64a8a56a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-c97106696572",
"listing_id": "492724643508039465",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Small Game (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Small Game",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97106696572.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:57.779130Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
"listing_id": "523123835627118406",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:15:48.404247Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488725054662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:19.076997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:19.076997Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "512990841908585123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.616694Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "526501640651063345",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:43.958491Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:2+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Crimson Foil 6.7% $8.63 Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $8.59 Heat Treated 6.7% $6.07 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.91 | $12.25 +73.9% | $8.41 +19.5% | 53.3% | +47.5% | $7.04 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Heat Treated 6.7% $6.17 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.17 Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.23 | $6.57 +62.2% | $4.49 +10.9% | 60.0% | +45.9% | $4.05 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.17 Heat Treated 6.7% $5.90 Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.23 | $6.57 +52.0% | $4.47 +3.6% | 60.0% | +42.6% | $4.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 3.3% $8.65 Crimson Foil 3.3% $8.64 Heat Treated 3.3% $6.06 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 | $12.25 +75.4% | $8.51 +21.9% | 51.7% | +50.1% | $6.98 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 10.0% $8.65 Crimson Foil 10.0% $8.63 Heat Treated 10.0% $6.06 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 | $12.25 +68.7% | $8.35 +15.0% | 55.0% | +43.4% | $7.26 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 13.3% $8.65 Crimson Foil 13.3% $8.63 Heat Treated 13.3% $6.06 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 | $12.25 +64.1% | $8.27 +10.8% | 56.7% | +39.7% | $7.46 | — |