The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Small Game
1x $0.64
Yorkshire
1x $0.69
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.39
Aeolian Light
3x $0.70
Grip Tape
3x $0.72
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
40.0% $12.25
Crimson Foil
6.7% $8.63
Arctic Tri-Tone
6.7% $8.59
Heat Treated
6.7% $6.07
Trace Lock
40.0% $4.91
Max Win
$12.25 (+73.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.41 (+19.5%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+47.5%
Cost
$7.04
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.04
Ask Price EV $8.41 (+19.5%)
Bid Price EV $7.79 (+10.6%)
Ask Profit $1.37 (+19.5%)
Bid Profit $0.75 (+10.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+8.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.37
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.75
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $12.25 (+73.9%)
Worst Case $4.91 (-30.3%)
Volatility +47.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.30
Avg Loss -$1.97
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.91 (-30.3%)
Std Dev $3.34
Avg Norm Float 0.2000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 152h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Small Game
—
Field-Tested
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Yorkshire
—
Field-Tested
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 29S //TOTAL COST $7.04 //ASK PRICE EV $8.41 //BID PRICE EV $7.79 //ASK PROFIT $1.37 (+19.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.75 (+10.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +47.5% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
40.0%
$12.25
+$5.21
+73.9%
$11.36
+$4.32
+61.4%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN
6.7%
$8.63
+$1.59
+22.6%
$8.60
+$1.56
+22.2%
$0.03
0.4%
—
WIN
6.7%
$8.59
+$1.55
+22.0%
$8.51
+$1.47
+20.9%
$0.08
0.9%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$6.07
-$0.97
-13.7%
$6.01
-$1.03
-14.6%
$0.06
1.0%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$4.91
-$2.13
-30.3%
$4.26
-$2.78
-39.5%
$0.65
13.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.13997199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.906,
"optimistic_value": 4.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:33.071919Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.19996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-277f6e42830d",
"realistic_value": 6.072,
"optimistic_value": 6.03,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated",
"conservative_value": 6.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:01.644642Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-277f6e42830d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.119976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-209298d0eb05",
"realistic_value": 8.5915,
"optimistic_value": 8.56,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone",
"conservative_value": 8.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:01.353256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-209298d0eb05.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.1359728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8ea306517618",
"realistic_value": 8.6305,
"optimistic_value": 8.62,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil",
"conservative_value": 8.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:36.868163Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ea306517618.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_60e97eb578f4d97a64a8a56a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-c97106696572",
"listing_id": "507361342334522113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Small Game (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Small Game",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97106696572.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:23:44.799916Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"listing_id": "493850543432655364",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:30.373236Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "492724643507979597",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:48.585340Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "494976224705666562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:48.585340Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "505109542380321956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:19.076997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "497228243055167129",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:19.862076Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "511864941882097833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:19.862076Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249840859550539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:19.862076Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488725054662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:19.076997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:19.076997Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:2+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 40.0% $26.93 Crimson Foil 6.7% $18.99 Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $18.82 Trace Lock 40.0% $14.39 Heat Treated 6.7% $12.50 | $26.93 +52.0% | $19.88 +12.2% | 53.3% | +33.7% | $17.72 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Heat Treated 6.7% $6.17 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.17 Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.23 | $6.57 +62.2% | $4.49 +10.9% | 60.0% | +45.9% | $4.05 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.17 Heat Treated 6.7% $5.90 Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.23 | $6.57 +52.0% | $4.47 +3.6% | 60.0% | +42.6% | $4.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 3.3% $8.65 Crimson Foil 3.3% $8.64 Heat Treated 3.3% $6.06 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 | $12.25 +75.4% | $8.51 +21.9% | 51.7% | +50.1% | $6.98 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 10.0% $8.65 Crimson Foil 10.0% $8.63 Heat Treated 10.0% $6.06 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 | $12.25 +68.7% | $8.35 +15.0% | 55.0% | +43.4% | $7.26 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 13.3% $8.65 Crimson Foil 13.3% $8.63 Heat Treated 13.3% $6.06 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 | $12.25 +64.1% | $8.27 +10.8% | 56.7% | +39.7% | $7.46 | — |