The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +10.9%Factory New -11.2%Field-Tested +19.5%Minimal Wear +12.2%Well-Worn +3.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Alpine Camo

1x $1.77

Zeno

1x $4.61

Aeolian Light

2x $1.69

Creep

2x $1.75

Grip Tape

2x $2.14

The Daily Deagle

2x $3.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Heat Treated

6.7% $61.93

Breakthrough

40.0% $26.93

Crimson Foil

6.7% $18.99

Arctic Tri-Tone

6.7% $18.82

Trace Lock

40.0% $14.39

Max Win

$61.93 (+137.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$23.17 (-11.2%)

Win %

46.7%

Volatility

+45.2%

Cost

$26.09

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $26.09

Ask Price EV $23.17 (-11.2%)

Bid Price EV $22.45 (-13.9%)

Ask Profit $-2.92 (-11.2%)

Bid Profit $-3.64 (-13.9%)

Liquidity Gap $0.72 (+2.8%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.92

Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.64

Risk

Win Probability 46.7%

Loss Probability 53.3%

Best Case $61.93 (+137.4%)

Worst Case $14.39 (-44.9%)

Volatility +45.2%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%

Avg Win +$5.84

Avg Loss -$10.58

Bottom 5% Outcome $14.39 (-44.9%)

Std Dev $11.79

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 152h 29m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

USP-S | Alpine Camo

—

Minimal Wear

$1.77 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Zeno

—

Factory New

$4.61 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Minimal Wear

$1.69 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$1.75 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$1.88 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Factory New

$1.91 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Factory New

$2.14 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Factory New

$2.35 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$3.00 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$4.99 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 26S //TOTAL COST $26.09 //ASK PRICE EV $23.17 //BID PRICE EV $22.45 //ASK PROFIT $-2.92 (-11.2%) //BID PROFIT $-3.64 (-13.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $61.93 //VOLATILITY +45.2% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.052425,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.72,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.04893,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 14.385,
      "optimistic_value": 14.35,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:14.291603Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.0699,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-277f6e42830d",
      "realistic_value": 61.9255,
      "optimistic_value": 61.81,
      "output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated",
      "conservative_value": 60.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:00.646656Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-277f6e42830d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.04194,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-209298d0eb05",
      "realistic_value": 18.817,
      "optimistic_value": 18.81,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone",
      "conservative_value": 18.78,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:05.259484Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-209298d0eb05.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.047532000000000005,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8ea306517618",
      "realistic_value": 18.9875,
      "optimistic_value": 18.97,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil",
      "conservative_value": 18.59,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:55.991126Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ea306517618.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_60e97eb578f4d97a64a8a56a",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.77,
      "skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
      "listing_id": "511864091803005405",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:15:48.404247Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
      "listing_id": "496102343225913743",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:17:13.727555Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "642467916661695005",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:19.076997Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "503983642532704231",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "524248990833803271",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.91,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "512990841908585123",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.616694Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "526501640651063345",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "518620341243286300",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "506235389469302484",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:43.958491Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "658230515405375198",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:43.958491Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:2+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:8"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Crimson Foil 6.7% $8.63 Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $8.59 Heat Treated 6.7% $6.07 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.91	$12.25 +73.9%	$8.41 +19.5%	53.3%	+47.5%	$7.04	—
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 40.0% $26.93 Crimson Foil 6.7% $18.99 Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $18.82 Trace Lock 40.0% $14.39 Heat Treated 6.7% $12.50	$26.93 +52.0%	$19.88 +12.2%	53.3%	+33.7%	$17.72	—
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Heat Treated 6.7% $6.17 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.17 Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.23	$6.57 +62.2%	$4.49 +10.9%	60.0%	+45.9%	$4.05	—
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.17 Heat Treated 6.7% $5.90 Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.23	$6.57 +52.0%	$4.47 +3.6%	60.0%	+42.6%	$4.32	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 3.3% $8.65 Crimson Foil 3.3% $8.64 Heat Treated 3.3% $6.06 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93	$12.25 +75.4%	$8.51 +21.9%	51.7%	+50.1%	$6.98	—
The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 10.0% $8.65 Crimson Foil 10.0% $8.63 Heat Treated 10.0% $6.06 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93	$12.25 +68.7%	$8.35 +15.0%	55.0%	+43.4%	$7.26	—
The Sport & Field Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Arctic Tri-Tone 13.3% $8.65 Crimson Foil 13.3% $8.63 Heat Treated 13.3% $6.06 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93	$12.25 +64.1%	$8.27 +10.8%	56.7%	+39.7%	$7.46	—