The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Heavy Metal
4x $0.27
Clear Polymer
1x $0.32
Shredded
1x $0.26
Red Tide
1x $0.27
Rose Hex
3x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Slate
10.0% $6.47
Mulberry
16.7% $5.01
Glitched Paint
16.7% $2.94
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $2.14
Trigger Discipline
10.0% $0.93
Cyber Shell
10.0% $0.73
Max Win
$6.47 (+110.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.64 (-14.4%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+63.9%
Cost
$3.08
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.08
Ask Price EV $2.64 (-14.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.37 (-23.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.44 (-14.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.71 (-23.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.26 (+8.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.44
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.71
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $6.47 (+110.2%)
Worst Case $0.70 (-77.4%)
Volatility +63.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.7%
Avg Win +$2.48
Avg Loss -$1.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.70 (-77.4%)
Std Dev $1.97
Avg Norm Float 0.4487
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 145h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Well-Worn
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Well-Worn
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Well-Worn
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Well-Worn
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Clear Polymer
—
Well-Worn
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 36S //TOTAL COST $3.08 //ASK PRICE EV $2.64 //BID PRICE EV $2.37 //ASK PROFIT $-0.44 (-14.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.71 (-23.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $6.47 //VOLATILITY +63.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$6.47
+$3.39
+110.2%
$5.55
+$2.47
+80.2%
$0.92
14.3%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$5.01
+$1.93
+62.5%
$4.66
+$1.58
+51.3%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$2.94
-$0.14
-4.4%
$2.76
-$0.32
-10.4%
$0.18
6.3%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$2.14
-$0.94
-30.5%
$1.91
-$1.17
-38.0%
$0.23
10.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.93
-$2.15
-69.8%
$0.80
-$2.28
-74.0%
$0.13
14.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$2.35
-76.4%
$0.62
-$2.46
-79.9%
$0.11
14.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$2.37
-76.9%
$0.59
-$2.49
-80.8%
$0.12
16.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$2.38
-77.4%
$0.61
-$2.47
-80.2%
$0.09
12.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-28|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.33651749999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3006223,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9445,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:28.288599Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.26921399999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1420000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:12.626131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44869,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48e1c7c5df5e",
"realistic_value": 6.4735,
"optimistic_value": 6.47,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Slate",
"conservative_value": 5.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:31:36.115423Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48e1c7c5df5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.4352293,
"output_skin_id": "skin-337794166cad",
"realistic_value": 0.93,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:31:43.995257Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-337794166cad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44869,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5acd24fcb47",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Button Masher",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Button Masher (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:20:36.479628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5acd24fcb47.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2916485,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bce9af58ff21",
"realistic_value": 0.697,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Negev | dev_texture",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | dev_texture (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:42.489865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bce9af58ff21.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.38138649999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-24c6ed776121",
"realistic_value": 0.7275,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Cyber Shell",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:08.768705Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-24c6ed776121.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_60068fa0513fe4dca873f26e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "521997988016018778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:44.060564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "524249787961472559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:44.060564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "511864836540363141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:44.060564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "498353293087855099",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:44.060564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-955f32e49387",
"listing_id": "501730992860735801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Clear Polymer",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-955f32e49387.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:47.106244Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:16.845243Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "507361289453734501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "503983589619767503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-28:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Slate 10.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 dev_texture 10.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 10.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +235.6% | $5.91 +24.4% | 60.0% | +97.8% | $4.75 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Slate 10.0% $11.16 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Trigger Discipline 10.0% $2.92 Button Masher 10.0% $1.61 | $15.94 +149.5% | $6.66 +4.3% | 43.3% | +70.8% | $6.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Slate 4.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 dev_texture 4.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 4.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +153.8% | $8.15 +29.8% | 57.3% | +74.3% | $6.28 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Slate 2.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 dev_texture 2.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 2.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.89 +28.7% | 62.0% | +66.3% | $6.91 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Slate 8.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 dev_texture 8.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 8.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +204.8% | $6.59 +26.0% | 68.0% | +90.2% | $5.23 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Slate 12.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 dev_texture 12.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 12.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +261.5% | $5.17 +17.1% | 52.0% | +102.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.17 Slate 14.0% $7.08 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 dev_texture 14.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 14.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +286.9% | $4.43 +7.5% | 44.0% | +103.4% | $4.12 | — |