The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Junk Yard
2x $0.43
Heavy Metal
2x $0.48
O.S.I.P.R.
1x $0.50
Shredded
3x $0.47
Rose Hex
1x $0.94
Blush Pour
1x $0.95
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $15.94
Slate
10.0% $11.16
Glitched Paint
16.7% $7.07
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $5.91
Trigger Discipline
10.0% $2.92
Button Masher
10.0% $1.61
Max Win
$15.94 (+149.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.66 (+4.3%)
Win %
43.3%
Volatility
+79.9%
Cost
$6.39
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $6.39
Ask Price EV $6.66 (+4.3%)
Bid Price EV $5.97 (-6.6%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+4.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.42 (-6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.70 (+10.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 43.3%
Loss Probability 56.7%
Best Case $15.94 (+149.5%)
Worst Case $1.24 (-80.6%)
Volatility +79.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.04
Avg Loss -$3.37
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.24 (-80.6%)
Std Dev $5.11
Avg Norm Float 0.1500
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 145h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | O.S.I.P.R.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 36S //TOTAL COST $6.39 //ASK PRICE EV $6.66 //BID PRICE EV $5.97 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+4.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.42 (-6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 43.3% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +79.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$15.94
+$9.55
+149.5%
$14.54
+$8.15
+127.5%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.16
+$4.77
+74.7%
$10.08
+$3.69
+57.7%
$1.08
9.7%
—
PAPER WIN
16.7%
$7.07
+$0.68
+10.6%
$6.21
-$0.18
-2.8%
$0.86
12.1%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$5.91
-$0.48
-7.4%
$5.14
-$1.25
-19.6%
$0.77
13.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.92
-$3.47
-54.3%
$2.46
-$3.93
-61.5%
$0.46
15.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.61
-$4.78
-74.7%
$1.58
-$4.81
-75.3%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.49
-$4.90
-76.7%
$1.35
-$5.04
-78.9%
$0.14
9.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.24
-$5.15
-80.6%
$1.06
-$5.33
-83.4%
$0.18
14.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-28|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1124775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1004799,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.067,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:59.157790Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.08998199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.914000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 5.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:28.631426Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48e1c7c5df5e",
"realistic_value": 11.1645,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Slate",
"conservative_value": 10.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:26.361775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48e1c7c5df5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1454709,
"output_skin_id": "skin-337794166cad",
"realistic_value": 2.92,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline",
"conservative_value": 2.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:28.148352Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-337794166cad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5acd24fcb47",
"realistic_value": 1.6135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Button Masher",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Button Masher (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:25.750123Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5acd24fcb47.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0974805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bce9af58ff21",
"realistic_value": 1.2405,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "Negev | dev_texture",
"conservative_value": 1.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | dev_texture (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:12.119127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bce9af58ff21.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1274745,
"output_skin_id": "skin-24c6ed776121",
"realistic_value": 1.4875,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Cyber Shell",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T13:28:26.033060Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-24c6ed776121.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_60068fa0513fe4dca873f26e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-503060091440",
"listing_id": "498354089953609411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Junk Yard",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-503060091440.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.779360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "508487023588303082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:39.493039Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-c6f056b9dbbc",
"listing_id": "515241791650918717",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | O.S.I.P.R.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c6f056b9dbbc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:50.667721Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "528752590506313941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:39.493039Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-503060091440",
"listing_id": "520871291143303056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Junk Yard",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-503060091440.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.779360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.391496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "501731789730685373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:51.295081Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476814342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:51.295081Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "517494388633767838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:08.943068Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188258766852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:35.691458Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-28:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Slate 10.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 dev_texture 10.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 10.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +235.6% | $5.91 +24.4% | 60.0% | +97.8% | $4.75 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Slate 4.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 dev_texture 4.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 4.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +153.8% | $8.15 +29.8% | 57.3% | +74.3% | $6.28 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Slate 2.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 dev_texture 2.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 2.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.89 +28.7% | 62.0% | +66.3% | $6.91 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Slate 8.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 dev_texture 8.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 8.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +204.8% | $6.59 +26.0% | 68.0% | +90.2% | $5.23 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Slate 12.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 dev_texture 12.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 12.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +261.5% | $5.17 +17.1% | 52.0% | +102.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.17 Slate 14.0% $7.08 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 dev_texture 14.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 14.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +286.9% | $4.43 +7.5% | 44.0% | +103.4% | $4.12 | — |