The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Junk Yard
1x $0.52
Heavy Metal
2x $0.54
Oscillator
2x $1.03
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Shredded
2x $2.18
Blush Pour
2x $4.95
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $33.42
Slate
10.0% $25.92
Cyber Shell
10.0% $21.08
Glitched Paint
16.7% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $16.98
Button Masher
10.0% $16.30
Max Win
$33.42 (+53.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.45 (-11.0%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+36.7%
Cost
$21.84
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.84
Ask Price EV $19.45 (-11.0%)
Bid Price EV $18.59 (-14.9%)
Ask Profit $-2.39 (-11.0%)
Bid Profit $-3.25 (-14.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.86 (+3.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.39
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.25
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $33.42 (+53.0%)
Worst Case $4.94 (-77.4%)
Volatility +36.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$8.76
Avg Loss -$6.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.94 (-77.4%)
Std Dev $8.02
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 146h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Minimal Wear
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Oscillator
—
Factory New
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Oscillator
—
Factory New
$1.15 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$5.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 34S //TOTAL COST $21.84 //ASK PRICE EV $19.45 //BID PRICE EV $18.59 //ASK PROFIT $-2.39 (-11.0%) //BID PROFIT $-3.25 (-14.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +36.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$33.42
+$11.58
+53.0%
$31.48
+$9.64
+44.1%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$25.92
+$4.08
+18.7%
$24.42
+$2.58
+11.8%
$1.50
5.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$21.08
-$0.76
-3.5%
$19.33
-$2.51
-11.5%
$1.75
8.3%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$17.13
-$4.71
-21.5%
$16.69
-$5.15
-23.6%
$0.44
2.6%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$16.98
-$4.86
-22.3%
$16.48
-$5.36
-24.5%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$16.30
-$5.54
-25.4%
$16.07
-$5.77
-26.4%
$0.23
1.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$13.69
-$8.15
-37.3%
$13.42
-$8.42
-38.6%
$0.27
2.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.94
-$16.90
-77.4%
$4.91
-$16.93
-77.5%
$0.03
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-28|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0467258,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.133499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:28.268328Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.041844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48e1c7c5df5e",
"realistic_value": 25.9155,
"optimistic_value": 25.87,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Slate",
"conservative_value": 24.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:46.289967Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48e1c7c5df5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0676478,
"output_skin_id": "skin-337794166cad",
"realistic_value": 13.6905,
"optimistic_value": 13.68,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline",
"conservative_value": 13.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:24.108278Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-337794166cad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5acd24fcb47",
"realistic_value": 16.2985,
"optimistic_value": 16.19,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Button Masher",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:08.442183Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5acd24fcb47.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045330999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bce9af58ff21",
"realistic_value": 4.9375,
"optimistic_value": 4.92,
"output_full_name": "Negev | dev_texture",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | dev_texture (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:36.506871Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bce9af58ff21.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.059279,
"output_skin_id": "skin-24c6ed776121",
"realistic_value": 21.0845,
"optimistic_value": 21.06,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Cyber Shell",
"conservative_value": 19.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Cyber Shell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:46.110830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-24c6ed776121.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_60068fa0513fe4dca873f26e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-503060091440",
"listing_id": "520871291143303056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Junk Yard",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-503060091440.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.779360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "507359316011084071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:39.493039Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-cfdaf2a78083",
"listing_id": "493850490550612612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Oscillator",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cfdaf2a78083.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:11.142474Z"
},
{
"price": 1.15,
"skin_id": "skin-cfdaf2a78083",
"listing_id": "503983589619594775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Oscillator",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cfdaf2a78083.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:11.142474Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fff2ecbae8e7",
"listing_id": "503982792714369235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Heavy Metal",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fff2ecbae8e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:39.493039Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:06.932821Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737776695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:54.014661Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:54.014661Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:20.485067Z"
},
{
"price": 5.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524062682488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:20.485067Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-28:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Slate 10.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 dev_texture 10.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 10.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +235.6% | $5.91 +24.4% | 60.0% | +97.8% | $4.75 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Slate 10.0% $11.16 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Trigger Discipline 10.0% $2.92 Button Masher 10.0% $1.61 | $15.94 +149.5% | $6.66 +4.3% | 43.3% | +70.8% | $6.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Slate 4.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 dev_texture 4.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 4.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +153.8% | $8.15 +29.8% | 57.3% | +74.3% | $6.28 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Slate 2.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 dev_texture 2.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 2.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.89 +28.7% | 62.0% | +66.3% | $6.91 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Slate 8.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 dev_texture 8.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 8.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +204.8% | $6.59 +26.0% | 68.0% | +90.2% | $5.23 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Slate 12.0% $7.08 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 dev_texture 12.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 12.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +261.5% | $5.17 +17.1% | 52.0% | +102.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.17 Slate 14.0% $7.08 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 dev_texture 14.0% $1.24 Trigger Discipline 14.0% $1.15 | $15.94 +286.9% | $4.43 +7.5% | 44.0% | +103.4% | $4.12 | — |