The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Damascus Steel
4x $0.13
Warm Blooded
3x $0.36
Sky Mandala
1x $0.48
Earth Mandala
2x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $6.81
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $2.57
Amber Fade
40.0% $0.89
Max Win
$6.81 (+100.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.17 (-6.8%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+73.0%
Cost
$3.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.40
Ask Price EV $3.17 (-6.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.98 (-12.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.23 (-6.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.42 (-12.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $6.81 (+100.3%)
Worst Case $0.89 (-73.8%)
Volatility +73.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.41
Avg Loss -$1.79
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.89 (-73.8%)
Std Dev $2.48
Avg Norm Float 0.4468
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 22m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
—
Well-Worn
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 36S //TOTAL COST $3.40 //ASK PRICE EV $3.17 //BID PRICE EV $2.98 //ASK PROFIT $-0.23 (-6.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.42 (-12.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $6.81 //VOLATILITY +73.0% //
Possible Outputs · 3
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.81
+$3.41
+100.3%
$6.60
+$3.20
+94.1%
$0.21
3.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.57
-$0.83
-24.5%
$2.25
-$1.15
-33.8%
$0.32
12.4%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$0.89
-$2.51
-73.8%
$0.82
-$2.58
-75.9%
$0.07
8.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.178712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
"realistic_value": 0.892,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:37:43.832052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.31274599999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 6.8095,
"optimistic_value": 6.61,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:33.426030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.31274599999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5675,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:39.137262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_583bf0be85b4fda8db1e9a97",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"listing_id": "518620288314169840",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:58.959505Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"listing_id": "492724590625841085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:58.959505Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"listing_id": "496101493268200643",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:58.959505Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"listing_id": "512990623223068823",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:50.964297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "515242588555264309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:01.534766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "512990789045394995",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:01.534766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "502857689862732112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "528753387757527561",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:35.666780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "502857689862889576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:35.666780Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.98 | $26.79 +62.1% | $17.82 +7.8% | 60.0% | +58.7% | $16.53 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 40.0% $1.37 | $13.99 +75.1% | $8.29 +3.8% | 60.0% | +71.5% | $7.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 80.0% $6.05 | $13.94 +115.7% | $7.42 +14.8% | 20.0% | +42.9% | $6.46 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 70.0% $5.98 | $13.99 +95.4% | $8.06 +12.5% | 30.0% | +45.1% | $7.16 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 60.0% $6.05 | $13.94 +77.8% | $8.78 +12.0% | 40.0% | +43.5% | $7.84 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 30.0% $5.98 | $26.79 +50.5% | $19.79 +11.2% | 70.0% | +51.0% | $17.80 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 50.0% $6.05 | $13.60 +56.4% | $9.38 +7.8% | 50.0% | +39.0% | $8.70 | — |