The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Battle-Scarred -6.5%Factory New -24.1%Field-Tested +3.8%Minimal Wear +7.8%Well-Worn -6.8%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Damascus Steel

2x $0.74

Brass

2x $0.80

Earth Mandala

3x $1.18

Sky Mandala

1x $1.95

Warm Blooded

2x $2.36

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

30.0% $26.79

Sleeping Potion

30.0% $24.63

Amber Fade

40.0% $5.98

Max Win

$26.79 (+62.1%)

EV (ROI %)

$17.82 (+7.8%)

Win %

60.0%

Volatility

+58.7%

Cost

$16.53

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $16.53

Ask Price EV $17.82 (+7.8%)

Bid Price EV $16.42 (-0.7%)

Ask Profit $1.29 (+7.8%)

Bid Profit $-0.11 (-0.7%)

Liquidity Gap $1.40 (+8.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.29

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11

Risk

Win Probability 60.0%

Loss Probability 40.0%

Best Case $26.79 (+62.1%)

Worst Case $5.98 (-63.8%)

Volatility +58.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$9.18

Avg Loss -$10.55

Bottom 5% Outcome $5.98 (-63.8%)

Std Dev $9.70

Avg Norm Float 0.0998

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 25h 58m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Minimal Wear

$0.74 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Minimal Wear

$0.77 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Brass

—

Minimal Wear

$0.80 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Brass

—

Minimal Wear

$1.00 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Minimal Wear

$1.18 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Minimal Wear

$1.95 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.30 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$3.07 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 39S //TOTAL COST $16.53 //ASK PRICE EV $17.82 //BID PRICE EV $16.42 //ASK PROFIT $1.29 (+7.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-0.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +58.7% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.039924,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
      "realistic_value": 5.98,
      "optimistic_value": 5.98,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
      "conservative_value": 4.79,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:57.876622Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.069867,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.787,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 26.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:32.269678Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.069867,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_583bf0be85b4fda8db1e9a97",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.74,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "508486392191760374",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:43.978412Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.77,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "644719716495697419",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:43.978412Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.8,
      "skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
      "listing_id": "499479989897279749",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:07.488183Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1,
      "skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
      "listing_id": "507359315991156487",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:07.488183Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "502857689862550924",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.146172Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.95,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "506234592364866552",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:14.484965Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "511864888985191545",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "516368488725166478",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "517494388633380694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "505109323870001060",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 30.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 40.0% $1.37	$13.99 +75.1%	$8.29 +3.8%	60.0%	+71.5%	$7.99	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 80.0% $6.05	$13.94 +115.7%	$7.42 +14.8%	20.0%	+42.9%	$6.46	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 15.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 70.0% $5.98	$13.99 +95.4%	$8.06 +12.5%	30.0%	+45.1%	$7.16	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 30.0% $5.98	$26.79 +50.5%	$19.79 +11.2%	70.0%	+51.0%	$17.80	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 20.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 60.0% $5.98	$13.99 +76.4%	$8.75 +10.3%	40.0%	+43.7%	$7.93	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 50.0% $6.05	$13.60 +56.4%	$9.38 +7.8%	50.0%	+39.0%	$8.70	—