The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred -2.4%Factory New -23.6%Field-Tested +13.1%Minimal Wear +11.3%Well-Worn -5.2%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Damascus Steel

4x $0.13

Warm Blooded

4x $0.36

Fraise Crane

1x $0.48

Earth Mandala

1x $0.52

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

30.0% $7.15

Sleeping Potion

30.0% $2.56

Amber Fade

40.0% $0.89

Max Win

$7.15 (+113.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$3.27 (-2.4%)

Win %

30.0%

Volatility

+78.5%

Cost

$3.35

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $3.35

Ask Price EV $3.27 (-2.4%)

Bid Price EV $2.98 (-11.0%)

Ask Profit $-0.08 (-2.4%)

Bid Profit $-0.37 (-11.0%)

Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+8.6%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.08

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37

Risk

Win Probability 30.0%

Loss Probability 70.0%

Best Case $7.15 (+113.4%)

Worst Case $0.89 (-73.4%)

Volatility +78.5%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$3.80

Avg Loss -$1.74

Bottom 5% Outcome $0.89 (-73.4%)

Std Dev $2.63

Avg Norm Float 0.4631

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Stale

Oldest Input Price 18m

Oldest Output Price 18m

Fill Confidence Medium

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Execution Sensitive

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.13 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.14 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.15 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Field-Tested

$0.24 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.46 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 17M 50S //TOTAL COST $3.35 //ASK PRICE EV $3.27 //BID PRICE EV $2.98 //ASK PROFIT $-0.08 (-2.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-11.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $7.15 //VOLATILITY +78.5% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.185252,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
      "realistic_value": 0.892,
      "optimistic_value": 0.85,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:42.781252Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.32419099999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.1475,
      "optimistic_value": 6.85,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.6,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:13.311211Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.32419099999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.5639999999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 2.55,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:09.467393Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_583bf0be85b4fda8db1e9a97",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.13,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "518620288314169840",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:31.942667Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "492724590625841085",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:31.942667Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "496101493268200643",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:31.942667Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "500605889841484319",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:00.502737Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841763211",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "512990789045324795",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997988016181858",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789730622481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:18.670364Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "502857689862889576",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494336189226390",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:01.710864Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 30.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 40.0% $6.17	$13.92 +54.4%	$10.19 +13.1%	60.0%	+37.5%	$9.01	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 30.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 40.0% $6.17	$26.56 +65.9%	$17.82 +11.3%	60.0%	+59.6%	$16.01	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17 Amber Fade 20.0% $0.89	$9.85 +166.2%	$4.99 +34.8%	40.0%	+108.1%	$3.70	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 80.0% $6.17	$13.56 +114.2%	$7.48 +18.1%	20.0%	+41.6%	$6.33	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 15.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 70.0% $6.17	$13.92 +99.6%	$8.18 +17.4%	30.0%	+44.8%	$6.97	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 35.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 30.0% $6.17	$26.56 +54.8%	$19.77 +15.3%	70.0%	+52.1%	$17.15	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 20.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 60.0% $6.17	$13.58 +77.9%	$8.78 +15.1%	40.0%	+42.5%	$7.63	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 25.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 50.0% $6.17	$13.92 +67.3%	$9.52 +14.4%	50.0%	+41.2%	$8.32	—