The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Brass
3x $0.80
VariCamo
1x $3.24
Earth Mandala
2x $2.30
Warm Blooded
4x $2.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $24.63
Amber Fade
40.0% $5.98
Max Win
$26.79 (+14.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.82 (-24.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+41.4%
Cost
$23.46
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.46
Ask Price EV $17.82 (-24.1%)
Bid Price EV $16.42 (-30.0%)
Ask Profit $-5.64 (-24.1%)
Bid Profit $-7.05 (-30.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.40 (+6.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$5.64
Bid Slippage Buffer -$7.05
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+14.2%)
Worst Case $5.98 (-74.5%)
Volatility +41.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.25
Avg Loss -$17.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.98 (-74.5%)
Std Dev $9.70
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 25h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Brass
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Brass
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Brass
—
Minimal Wear
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$3.24 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 39S //TOTAL COST $23.46 //ASK PRICE EV $17.82 //BID PRICE EV $16.42 //ASK PROFIT $-5.64 (-24.1%) //BID PROFIT $-7.05 (-30.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +41.4% //
Possible Outputs · 3
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
30.0%
$26.79
+$3.33
+14.2%
$26.05
+$2.59
+11.0%
$0.74
2.8%
—
PAPER WIN
30.0%
$24.63
+$1.17
+5.0%
$22.28
-$1.18
-5.0%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$5.98
-$17.48
-74.5%
$4.79
-$18.67
-79.6%
$1.19
19.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.027900000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
"realistic_value": 5.98,
"optimistic_value": 5.98,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 4.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:57.876622Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:32.269678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_583bf0be85b4fda8db1e9a97",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"listing_id": "499479989897279749",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:07.488183Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"listing_id": "507359315991156487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:07.488183Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"listing_id": "743787424996408847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:07.488183Z"
},
{
"price": 3.24,
"skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"listing_id": "635712445340266039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:18.908009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.98 | $26.79 +62.1% | $17.82 +7.8% | 60.0% | +58.7% | $16.53 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 40.0% $1.37 | $13.99 +75.1% | $8.29 +3.8% | 60.0% | +71.5% | $7.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 80.0% $6.05 | $13.94 +115.7% | $7.42 +14.8% | 20.0% | +42.9% | $6.46 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 70.0% $5.98 | $13.99 +95.4% | $8.06 +12.5% | 30.0% | +45.1% | $7.16 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 60.0% $6.05 | $13.94 +77.8% | $8.78 +12.0% | 40.0% | +43.5% | $7.84 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 30.0% $5.98 | $26.79 +50.5% | $19.79 +11.2% | 70.0% | +51.0% | $17.80 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 50.0% $6.05 | $13.60 +56.4% | $9.38 +7.8% | 50.0% | +39.0% | $8.70 | — |