The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items

Battle-Scarred -6.5%Factory New -24.1%Field-Tested +3.8%Minimal Wear +7.8%Well-Worn -6.8%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested

Inputs

Damascus Steel

3x $0.25

Brass

1x $0.70

Warm Blooded

3x $0.50

Earth Mandala

3x $0.57

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

30.0% $13.99

Sleeping Potion

30.0% $11.82

Amber Fade

40.0% $1.37

Max Win

$13.99 (+75.1%)

EV (ROI %)

$8.29 (+3.8%)

Win %

60.0%

Volatility

+71.5%

Cost

$7.99

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $7.99

Ask Price EV $8.29 (+3.8%)

Bid Price EV $7.04 (-11.9%)

Ask Profit $0.30 (+3.8%)

Bid Profit $-0.95 (-11.9%)

Liquidity Gap $1.25 (+15.6%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.30

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.95

Risk

Win Probability 60.0%

Loss Probability 40.0%

Best Case $13.99 (+75.1%)

Worst Case $1.37 (-82.9%)

Volatility +71.5%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$4.92

Avg Loss -$6.62

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.37 (-82.9%)

Std Dev $5.71

Avg Norm Float 0.2132

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 20m

Oldest Output Price 56h 9m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Field-Tested

$0.25 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Brass

—

Minimal Wear

$0.70 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Minimal Wear

$0.73 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Minimal Wear

$0.74 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.57 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$1.05 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Minimal Wear

$1.12 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Minimal Wear

$1.15 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Minimal Wear

$1.18 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 37S //TOTAL COST $7.99 //ASK PRICE EV $8.29 //BID PRICE EV $7.04 //ASK PROFIT $0.30 (+3.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.95 (-11.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $13.99 //VOLATILITY +71.5% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.08527200000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
      "realistic_value": 1.368,
      "optimistic_value": 1.34,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
      "conservative_value": 1.3,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:38:26.937218Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.149226,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 13.992,
      "optimistic_value": 13.88,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 12.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:04.320686Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.149226,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 11.8215,
      "optimistic_value": 11.79,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 9.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_583bf0be85b4fda8db1e9a97",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "512990623223068823",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:50.964297Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
      "listing_id": "519746135814869804",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:07.488183Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.73,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "528752590494221973",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:43.978412Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.74,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "508486392191760374",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:43.978412Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "502857689862889576",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.57,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "511864723318275141",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:35.666780Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.05,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "494975741590866474",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.12,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "506235337025762268",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:06.404563Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "494976390477163866",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.146172Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "502857689862550924",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.146172Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.98	$26.79 +62.1%	$17.82 +7.8%	60.0%	+58.7%	$16.53	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 80.0% $6.05	$13.94 +115.7%	$7.42 +14.8%	20.0%	+42.9%	$6.46	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 15.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 70.0% $5.98	$13.99 +95.4%	$8.06 +12.5%	30.0%	+45.1%	$7.16	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 20.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 60.0% $6.05	$13.94 +77.8%	$8.78 +12.0%	40.0%	+43.5%	$7.84	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Amber Fade 30.0% $5.98	$26.79 +50.5%	$19.79 +11.2%	70.0%	+51.0%	$17.80	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Amber Fade 50.0% $6.05	$13.60 +56.4%	$9.38 +7.8%	50.0%	+39.0%	$8.70	—