The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Tom Cat
4x $0.25
Distressed
2x $0.30
Yeti Camo
2x $0.26
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
20.0% $6.93
Fever Dream
12.0% $1.28
Royal Guard
20.0% $1.22
Apocalypto
12.0% $0.83
Darkwing
12.0% $0.81
Enforcer
12.0% $0.80
Max Win
$6.93 (+120.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.17 (-30.8%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+76.0%
Cost
$3.14
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.14
Ask Price EV $2.17 (-30.8%)
Bid Price EV $1.84 (-41.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.97 (-30.8%)
Bid Profit $-1.30 (-41.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+10.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.97
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.30
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+120.7%)
Worst Case $0.79 (-74.9%)
Volatility +76.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$3.79
Avg Loss -$2.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.79 (-74.9%)
Std Dev $2.39
Avg Norm Float 0.4397
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 155h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 03S //TOTAL COST $3.14 //ASK PRICE EV $2.17 //BID PRICE EV $1.84 //ASK PROFIT $-0.97 (-30.8%) //BID PROFIT $-1.30 (-41.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +76.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$6.93
+$3.79
+120.7%
$5.76
+$2.62
+83.4%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.28
-$1.86
-59.1%
$1.18
-$1.96
-62.4%
$0.10
8.1%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.22
-$1.92
-61.1%
$1.06
-$2.08
-66.2%
$0.16
13.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.83
-$2.31
-73.6%
$0.69
-$2.45
-78.0%
$0.14
16.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.81
-$2.33
-74.1%
$0.74
-$2.40
-76.4%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.80
-$2.34
-74.4%
$0.73
-$2.41
-76.8%
$0.07
9.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.79
-$2.35
-74.9%
$0.66
-$2.48
-79.0%
$0.13
16.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.3297675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.263814,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.2229999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:08.888672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.43969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:55:25.371606Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.43969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:33.827208Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.43969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:50:42.656562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.3165768,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 1.284,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 1.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:15.583125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.43969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 0.8305,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:06.390088Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_42336258761e5a5942349fa2",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "517494441498596146",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:25.842382Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "521998040962209786",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:25.842382Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "514116741798033366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:31.406115Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "503983537176128143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:20.012983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "526501587738372281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:20.012983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "525375522202008871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:31.406115Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:48.080434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "509613142168236027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:59.841450Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:48.080434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:59.841450Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Enforcer 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +309.9% | $5.58 +26.6% | 40.0% | +142.4% | $4.41 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.27 Fever Dream 12.0% $8.46 Acid Etched 12.0% $2.37 Darkwing 12.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.94 | $38.92 +228.5% | $12.47 +5.3% | 40.0% | +113.2% | $11.85 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Acid Etched 12.0% $34.68 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.27 Darkwing 12.0% $9.51 Enforcer 12.0% $9.50 Apocalypto 12.0% $9.34 | $38.92 +112.5% | $19.02 +3.8% | 32.0% | +66.5% | $18.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Enforcer 10.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +251.0% | $6.63 +28.7% | 50.0% | +128.4% | $5.15 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Enforcer 8.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +198.3% | $7.66 +26.4% | 30.0% | +112.0% | $6.06 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Enforcer 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +153.2% | $8.70 +21.9% | 35.0% | +95.7% | $7.14 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.29 Fever Dream 2.0% $8.39 Acid Etched 2.0% $2.36 Darkwing 2.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 2.0% $1.94 | $38.92 +97.3% | $23.83 +20.8% | 45.0% | +69.0% | $19.73 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Enforcer 4.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 4.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +120.4% | $9.74 +18.8% | 40.0% | +82.4% | $8.20 | — |