The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Prototype
2x $0.41
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
3x $1.01
Reef Grief
3x $2.04
Royal Baroque
1x $4.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
20.0% $38.92
Acid Etched
12.0% $34.68
Royal Guard
20.0% $13.27
Darkwing
12.0% $9.51
Enforcer
12.0% $9.50
Apocalypto
12.0% $9.34
Max Win
$38.92 (+112.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.02 (+3.8%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+69.4%
Cost
$18.32
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $18.32
Ask Price EV $19.02 (+3.8%)
Bid Price EV $17.53 (-4.3%)
Ask Profit $0.70 (+3.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.79 (-4.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.48 (+8.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.70
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.79
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+112.5%)
Worst Case $8.46 (-53.8%)
Volatility +69.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 68.0%
Avg Win +$19.01
Avg Loss -$7.92
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.46 (-53.8%)
Std Dev $12.71
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 154h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.01 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 45S //TOTAL COST $18.32 //ASK PRICE EV $19.02 //BID PRICE EV $17.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.70 (+3.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.79 (-4.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +69.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$38.92
+$20.60
+112.5%
$34.38
+$16.06
+87.7%
$4.54
11.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$34.68
+$16.35
+89.3%
$32.11
+$13.79
+75.3%
$2.56
7.4%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$13.27
-$5.05
-27.6%
$13.08
-$5.24
-28.6%
$0.19
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.51
-$8.81
-48.1%
$9.23
-$9.09
-49.6%
$0.28
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.50
-$8.82
-48.1%
$8.92
-$9.40
-51.3%
$0.58
6.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.34
-$8.98
-49.0%
$8.75
-$9.57
-52.2%
$0.59
6.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$8.46
-$9.86
-53.8%
$8.00
-$10.32
-56.3%
$0.46
5.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.05235,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.04188,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.27,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:59.703672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0698,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0698,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:55:37.851234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0698,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.5085,
"optimistic_value": 9.4,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:00.072909Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.050256,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4635,
"optimistic_value": 8.39,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:30:53.625908Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0698,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.3375,
"optimistic_value": 9.25,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:35.995195Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_42336258761e5a5942349fa2",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "496102290330001163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:40.886781Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:20.012983Z"
},
{
"price": 1.01,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "492724538182123749",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:56:16.252118Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "494975593206612054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:56:16.252118Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "523123091059693018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:56:16.252118Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:41.875878Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "506235442368331512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375740886326767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:43.151742Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Enforcer 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +309.9% | $5.58 +26.6% | 40.0% | +142.4% | $4.41 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.27 Fever Dream 12.0% $8.46 Acid Etched 12.0% $2.37 Darkwing 12.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.94 | $38.92 +228.5% | $12.47 +5.3% | 40.0% | +113.2% | $11.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Enforcer 10.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +251.0% | $6.63 +28.7% | 50.0% | +128.4% | $5.15 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Enforcer 8.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +198.3% | $7.66 +26.4% | 30.0% | +112.0% | $6.06 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Enforcer 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +153.2% | $8.70 +21.9% | 35.0% | +95.7% | $7.14 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.29 Fever Dream 2.0% $8.39 Acid Etched 2.0% $2.36 Darkwing 2.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 2.0% $1.94 | $38.92 +97.3% | $23.83 +20.8% | 45.0% | +69.0% | $19.73 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Enforcer 4.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 4.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +120.4% | $9.74 +18.8% | 40.0% | +82.4% | $8.20 | — |