The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Distressed
1x $0.36
Tom Cat
2x $0.37
Prototype
3x $0.41
Royal Baroque
1x $1.44
Reef Grief
3x $2.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
20.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
20.0% $13.27
Fever Dream
12.0% $8.46
Acid Etched
12.0% $2.37
Darkwing
12.0% $2.29
Apocalypto
12.0% $1.94
Max Win
$38.92 (+228.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.47 (+5.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+117.3%
Cost
$11.85
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $11.85
Ask Price EV $12.47 (+5.3%)
Bid Price EV $11.40 (-3.8%)
Ask Profit $0.62 (+5.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.45 (-3.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.08 (+9.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.45
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+228.5%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-83.9%)
Volatility +117.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$14.25
Avg Loss -$8.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-83.9%)
Std Dev $13.91
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 107h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 04S //TOTAL COST $11.85 //ASK PRICE EV $12.47 //BID PRICE EV $11.40 //ASK PROFIT $0.62 (+5.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.45 (-3.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +117.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$38.92
+$27.07
+228.5%
$34.38
+$22.53
+190.1%
$4.54
11.7%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$13.27
+$1.42
+12.0%
$13.08
+$1.23
+10.4%
$0.19
1.4%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$8.46
-$3.39
-28.6%
$8.00
-$3.85
-32.5%
$0.46
5.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.37
-$9.48
-80.0%
$2.25
-$9.60
-81.0%
$0.12
4.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.29
-$9.56
-80.7%
$2.02
-$9.83
-83.0%
$0.27
11.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.94
-$9.91
-83.6%
$1.88
-$9.97
-84.1%
$0.06
3.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.90
-$9.95
-83.9%
$1.72
-$10.13
-85.5%
$0.18
9.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06999749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.055998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.27,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:59.703672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09333,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 2.367,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:47.248311Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09333,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.9035,
"optimistic_value": 1.9,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:50:19.581755Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09333,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 2.291,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 2.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T07:19:18.742363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0671976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4635,
"optimistic_value": 8.39,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:30:53.625908Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09333,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.944,
"optimistic_value": 1.93,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 1.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:50:10.262283Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_42336258761e5a5942349fa2",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "525375522202008871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:31.406115Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "491598690698515994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:20.012983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "496102290330001163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:40.886781Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:40.886781Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:40.886781Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:20.012983Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:17.977207Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "506235442368331512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375740886326767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Enforcer 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +309.9% | $5.58 +26.6% | 40.0% | +142.4% | $4.41 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Acid Etched 12.0% $34.68 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.27 Darkwing 12.0% $9.51 Enforcer 12.0% $9.50 Apocalypto 12.0% $9.34 | $38.92 +112.5% | $19.02 +3.8% | 32.0% | +66.5% | $18.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Enforcer 10.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +251.0% | $6.63 +28.7% | 50.0% | +128.4% | $5.15 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Enforcer 8.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +198.3% | $7.66 +26.4% | 30.0% | +112.0% | $6.06 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Enforcer 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +153.2% | $8.70 +21.9% | 35.0% | +95.7% | $7.14 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.29 Fever Dream 2.0% $8.39 Acid Etched 2.0% $2.36 Darkwing 2.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 2.0% $1.94 | $38.92 +97.3% | $23.83 +20.8% | 45.0% | +69.0% | $19.73 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Enforcer 4.0% $1.00 Apocalypto 4.0% $1.00 | $18.08 +120.4% | $9.74 +18.8% | 40.0% | +82.4% | $8.20 | — |