The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Restricted → Classified FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred -25.7%Factory New +30.8%Field-Tested +3.7%Minimal Wear +2.2%Well-Worn -22.7%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Factory New

Inputs

Amberline

3x $10.83

Urban Sovereign

1x $12.93

Galigator

2x $14.20

Whiteout

2x $13.99

Charged Up

2x $23.59

↓

Possible Outputs

Hellish

20.0% $597.10

Latte Rush

20.0% $294.44

Crane Flight

20.0% $150.19

Deathgaze

20.0% $40.34

Kintsugi

20.0% $38.39

Max Win

$597.10 (+248.6%)

EV (ROI %)

$224.09 (+30.8%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+121.9%

Cost

$171.28

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $171.28

Ask Price EV $224.09 (+30.8%)

Bid Price EV $198.75 (+16.0%)

Ask Profit $52.81 (+30.8%)

Bid Profit $27.47 (+16.0%)

Liquidity Gap $25.34 (+14.8%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$52.81

Bid Slippage Buffer +$27.47

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $597.10 (+248.6%)

Worst Case $38.39 (-77.6%)

Volatility +121.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$274.49

Avg Loss -$94.97

Bottom 5% Outcome $38.39 (-77.6%)

Std Dev $208.71

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 143h 59m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

MP7 | Amberline

—

Factory New

$10.83 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Factory New

$12.93 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Factory New

$14.00 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Galigator

—

Factory New

$14.20 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Factory New

$14.50 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Galigator

—

Factory New

$16.11 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Field-Tested

$13.99 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

—

Minimal Wear

$23.59 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Field-Tested

$25.46 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

—

Minimal Wear

$25.67 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 14S //TOTAL COST $171.28 //ASK PRICE EV $224.09 //BID PRICE EV $198.75 //ASK PROFIT $52.81 (+30.8%) //BID PROFIT $27.47 (+16.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $597.10 //VOLATILITY +121.9% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.06989,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
      "realistic_value": 597.102,
      "optimistic_value": 554.78,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
      "conservative_value": 524.1,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:32.488398Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.06989,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
      "realistic_value": 294.4405,
      "optimistic_value": 294.43,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
      "conservative_value": 258.53,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:56:36.220092Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.06989,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 150.193,
      "optimistic_value": 149.22,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 135.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:42.904333Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.06989,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 38.385,
      "optimistic_value": 38,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 37.52,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:40.088849Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.06989,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 40.3435,
      "optimistic_value": 39.99,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 37.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:18.997811Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_317259cdf3c8bb320ddfad55",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 10.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "509613036860694387",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:28.273032Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 12.93,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "526501587737841893",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:49:46.588306Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 14,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "511864723318846929",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:28.273032Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 14.2,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "497228024529545945",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:25.636633Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 14.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "511864836538367625",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:28.273032Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 16.11,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "502857637416460792",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:25.636633Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 13.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "492724590626550033",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:12.851995Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 23.59,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "527627487623125412",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:04.185204Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 25.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "498354037510208119",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:12.851995Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 25.67,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "507361289451988861",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:04.185204Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Hellish 20.0% $64.09 Latte Rush 20.0% $42.01 Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Kintsugi 20.0% $10.58 Deathgaze 20.0% $9.77	$64.09 +105.3%	$32.37 +3.7%	60.0%	+65.5%	$31.22	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear	Hellish 20.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 20.0% $122.85 Crane Flight 20.0% $60.44 Deathgaze 20.0% $17.37 Kintsugi 20.0% $17.29	$138.17 +98.2%	$71.23 +2.2%	40.0%	+73.3%	$69.72	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 16.7% $150.19 Deathgaze 16.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 16.7% $38.39	$597.10 +196.9%	$261.04 +29.8%	50.0%	+107.7%	$201.11	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 15.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 15.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 23.3% $150.19 Deathgaze 23.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 23.3% $38.39	$597.10 +311.6%	$187.15 +29.0%	53.3%	+133.4%	$145.06	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 30.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 13.3% $150.19 Deathgaze 13.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 13.3% $38.39	$597.10 +157.3%	$297.99 +28.4%	60.0%	+94.0%	$232.03	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 10.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 10.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 26.7% $150.19 Deathgaze 26.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 26.7% $38.39	$597.10 +403.0%	$150.20 +26.5%	46.7%	+142.5%	$118.70	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 10.0% $150.19 Deathgaze 10.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 10.0% $38.39	$597.10 +123.1%	$334.93 +25.2%	70.0%	+79.7%	$267.58	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 5.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 5.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 30.0% $150.19 Deathgaze 30.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 30.0% $38.39	$597.10 +540.7%	$113.25 +21.5%	40.0%	+140.0%	$93.20	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 6.7% $150.19 Deathgaze 6.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 6.7% $38.39	$597.10 +92.9%	$371.88 +20.1%	40.0%	+65.2%	$309.59	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 45.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 45.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 3.3% $150.19 Deathgaze 3.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 3.3% $38.39	$597.10 +67.2%	$408.82 +14.5%	45.0%	+51.0%	$357.15	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.47 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.37	$64.86 +180.6%	$30.75 +33.0%	40.0%	+88.9%	$23.12	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear	LongDog 10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit 45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned 45.0% $183.83	$663.30 +241.6%	$239.22 +23.2%	55.0%	+72.9%	$194.17	—