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The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Restricted → Classified BS 10 items
Battle-Scarred -24.1%Factory New +30.8%Field-Tested +2.9%Minimal Wear +2.2%Well-Worn -23.5%
Contract
Restricted → Classified Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
4x $1.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
2x $1.38
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
4x $4.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
20.0% $29.52
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
20.0% $29.16
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
20.0% $27.86
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
20.0% $6.46
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
20.0% $6.40
Max Win
$29.52 (+12.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.88 (-24.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+42.0%
Cost
$26.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.18
Ask Price EV $19.88 (-24.1%)
Bid Price EV $18.71 (-28.5%)
Ask Profit $-6.30 (-24.1%)
Bid Profit $-7.47 (-28.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.17 (+4.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$6.30
Bid Slippage Buffer -$7.47
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $29.52 (+12.8%)
Worst Case $6.40 (-75.5%)
Volatility +42.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.67
Avg Loss -$19.75
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.40 (-75.5%)
Std Dev $11.00
Avg Norm Float 0.5385
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 145h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Well-Worn
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Well-Worn
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Battle-Scarred
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)
$4.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Battle-Scarred
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Battle-Scarred
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Battle-Scarred
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)
$4.99 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 21S //TOTAL COST $26.18 //ASK PRICE EV $19.88 //BID PRICE EV $18.71 //ASK PROFIT $-6.30 (-24.1%) //BID PROFIT $-7.47 (-28.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $29.52 //VOLATILITY +42.0% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.53854,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
      "realistic_value": 29.522,
      "optimistic_value": 29.06,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
      "conservative_value": 27.51,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T17:55:41.551465Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.53854,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
      "realistic_value": 29.1645,
      "optimistic_value": 29,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
      "conservative_value": 27,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:41.525355Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.53854,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 27.857,
      "optimistic_value": 27.5,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 27.41,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:10.479436Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.53854,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 6.4025,
      "optimistic_value": 6.28,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 6.01,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:39:42.704919Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.53854,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 6.461,
      "optimistic_value": 6.37,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 5.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:46.211807Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_317259cdf3c8bb320ddfad55",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "519746188258617308",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:16.866496Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "515242423037983309",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:16.866496Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "528753335314210545",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:16.866496Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "518620288314387136",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:10.100094Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "528753387757822545",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:10.100094Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.62,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "505109437005486308",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.314235Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.16,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "502857637416865540",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:52.234516Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "493850438105609572",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:52.234516Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "512990623222010891",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:52.234516Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "507361237007404861",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:52.234516Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
20.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
20.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
20.0% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
20.0% $40.34
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
20.0% $38.39
$597.10
+248.6%
$224.09
+30.8%
40.0%+121.8%$171.31—
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
20.0% $64.09
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
20.0% $43.10
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
20.0% $35.39
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
20.0% $10.05
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
20.0% $9.73
$64.09
+103.0%
$32.47
+2.9%
60.0%+65.5%$31.57—
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
20.0% $138.17
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
20.0% $122.85
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
20.0% $60.44
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
20.0% $17.41
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
20.0% $17.27
$138.17
+98.2%
$71.23
+2.2%
40.0%+73.3%$69.72—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
15.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
15.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
23.3% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
23.3% $40.34
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
23.3% $38.39
$597.10
+314.5%
$187.15
+29.9%
53.3%+134.3%$144.04—
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
25.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
25.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
16.7% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
16.7% $40.81
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
16.7% $38.39
$597.10
+196.6%
$261.12
+29.7%
50.0%+107.6%$201.34—
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
30.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
30.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
13.3% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
13.3% $40.81
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
13.3% $38.39
$597.10
+156.7%
$298.05
+28.2%
60.0%+93.8%$232.57—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
10.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
10.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
26.7% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
26.7% $40.34
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
26.7% $38.39
$597.10
+407.2%
$150.20
+27.6%
46.7%+143.7%$117.73—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
35.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
35.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
10.0% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
10.0% $40.34
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
10.0% $38.39
$597.10
+123.1%
$334.93
+25.2%
70.0%+79.7%$267.58—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
5.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
5.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
30.0% $40.81
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $38.39
$597.10
+540.7%
$113.39
+21.7%
40.0%+139.9%$93.20—
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
40.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
40.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
6.7% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
6.7% $40.81
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
6.7% $38.39
$597.10
+92.4%
$371.91
+19.8%
40.0%+65.0%$310.34—
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
45.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
45.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
3.3% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
3.3% $40.81
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
3.3% $38.39
$597.10
+67.6%
$408.84
+14.7%
45.0%+51.1%$356.29—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $9.69
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $7.77
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $7.13
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $2.19
$9.69
+166.3%
$4.82
+32.3%
52.0%+69.7%$3.64—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Classified → Covert Minimal Wear
LongDog
AWP | LongDog
10.0% $663.30
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
45.0% $200.36
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
45.0% $183.83
$663.30
+242.7%
$239.22
+23.6%
55.0%+73.2%$193.54—
FS

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