The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified WW 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn
Inputs
Amberline
2x $1.19
Urban Sovereign
4x $1.38
Whiteout
4x $4.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Hellish
20.0% $33.69
Crane Flight
20.0% $28.87
Latte Rush
20.0% $28.85
Deathgaze
20.0% $8.30
Kintsugi
20.0% $8.11
Max Win
$33.69 (+19.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$21.56 (-23.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+39.2%
Cost
$28.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $28.18
Ask Price EV $21.56 (-23.5%)
Bid Price EV $20.87 (-25.9%)
Ask Profit $-6.62 (-23.5%)
Bid Profit $-7.31 (-25.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.69 (+2.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$6.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$7.31
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $33.69 (+19.5%)
Worst Case $8.11 (-71.2%)
Volatility +39.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.29
Avg Loss -$19.98
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.11 (-71.2%)
Std Dev $11.05
Avg Norm Float 0.4479
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 144h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Well-Worn
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Well-Worn
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$1.90 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Battle-Scarred
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Battle-Scarred
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Battle-Scarred
$4.99 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Well-Worn
$5.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 45S //TOTAL COST $28.18 //ASK PRICE EV $21.56 //BID PRICE EV $20.87 //ASK PROFIT $-6.62 (-23.5%) //BID PROFIT $-7.31 (-25.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $33.69 //VOLATILITY +39.2% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$33.69
+$5.51
+19.5%
$31.58
+$3.40
+12.1%
$2.11
6.3%
—
PAPER WIN
20.0%
$28.87
+$0.69
+2.4%
$28.15
-$0.03
-0.1%
$0.72
2.5%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$28.85
+$0.67
+2.4%
$28.66
+$0.48
+1.7%
$0.19
0.7%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$8.30
-$19.88
-70.6%
$7.97
-$20.21
-71.7%
$0.33
3.9%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$8.11
-$20.07
-71.2%
$7.98
-$20.20
-71.7%
$0.13
1.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.44787,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
"realistic_value": 33.688,
"optimistic_value": 33.52,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
"conservative_value": 31.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:35:36.378479Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.44787,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
"realistic_value": 28.848,
"optimistic_value": 28.68,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
"conservative_value": 28.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:07.240275Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.44787,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 28.8675,
"optimistic_value": 28.64,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 28.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:26.391960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.44787,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 8.1125,
"optimistic_value": 8.06,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 7.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:24.829401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.44787,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 8.2965,
"optimistic_value": 8.23,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 7.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:11.876879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_317259cdf3c8bb320ddfad55",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "519746188258617308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:16.866496Z"
},
{
"price": 1.32,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "515242423037983309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:16.866496Z"
},
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518620288314387136",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:10.100094Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "528753387757822545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:10.100094Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "529879287551632968",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:30.481551Z"
},
{
"price": 1.9,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "490472790737758479",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:30.481551Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"listing_id": "493850438105609572",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:52.234516Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"listing_id": "512990623222010891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:52.234516Z"
},
{
"price": 4.99,
"skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"listing_id": "507361237007404861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:52.234516Z"
},
{
"price": 5.34,
"skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"listing_id": "528753387757647405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:56.151225Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 20.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 20.0% $150.19 Deathgaze 20.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 20.0% $38.39 | $597.10 +248.6% | $224.09 +30.8% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $171.31 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Hellish 20.0% $64.09 Latte Rush 20.0% $43.10 Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Kintsugi 20.0% $10.05 Deathgaze 20.0% $9.73 | $64.09 +103.0% | $32.47 +2.9% | 60.0% | +65.5% | $31.57 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Hellish 20.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 20.0% $122.85 Crane Flight 20.0% $60.44 Deathgaze 20.0% $17.41 Kintsugi 20.0% $17.27 | $138.17 +98.2% | $71.23 +2.2% | 40.0% | +73.3% | $69.72 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 15.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 15.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 23.3% $150.19 Deathgaze 23.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 23.3% $38.39 | $597.10 +314.5% | $187.15 +29.9% | 53.3% | +134.3% | $144.04 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 16.7% $150.19 Deathgaze 16.7% $40.81 Kintsugi 16.7% $38.39 | $597.10 +196.6% | $261.12 +29.7% | 50.0% | +107.6% | $201.34 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 30.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 13.3% $150.19 Deathgaze 13.3% $40.81 Kintsugi 13.3% $38.39 | $597.10 +156.7% | $298.05 +28.2% | 60.0% | +93.8% | $232.57 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 10.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 10.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 26.7% $150.19 Deathgaze 26.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 26.7% $38.39 | $597.10 +407.2% | $150.20 +27.6% | 46.7% | +143.7% | $117.73 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 10.0% $150.19 Deathgaze 10.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 10.0% $38.39 | $597.10 +123.1% | $334.93 +25.2% | 70.0% | +79.7% | $267.58 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 5.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 5.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 30.0% $150.19 Deathgaze 30.0% $40.81 Kintsugi 30.0% $38.39 | $597.10 +540.7% | $113.39 +21.7% | 40.0% | +139.9% | $93.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 6.7% $150.19 Deathgaze 6.7% $40.81 Kintsugi 6.7% $38.39 | $597.10 +92.4% | $371.91 +19.8% | 40.0% | +65.0% | $310.34 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 45.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 45.0% $294.44 Crane Flight 3.3% $150.19 Deathgaze 3.3% $40.81 Kintsugi 3.3% $38.39 | $597.10 +67.6% | $408.84 +14.7% | 45.0% | +51.1% | $356.29 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.69 Charged Up  13.3% $7.77 Derailment  13.3% $7.13 Electrum  12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing  12.0% $2.79 Galigator  12.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +166.3% | $4.82 +32.3% | 52.0% | +69.7% | $3.64 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +242.7% | $239.22 +23.6% | 55.0% | +73.2% | $193.54 | — |