The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Grip
2x $0.16
Night Riot
1x $0.28
Yeti Camo
3x $0.23
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.34
Royal Baroque
2x $0.38
Reef Grief
1x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.93
Moonrise
6.0% $1.28
Royal Guard
35.0% $1.23
Lionfish
6.0% $0.82
SWAG-7
6.0% $0.71
Arctic Wolf
6.0% $0.71
Max Win
$6.93 (+128.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.11 (+2.3%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+92.5%
Cost
$3.04
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.04
Ask Price EV $3.11 (+2.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.63 (-13.7%)
Ask Profit $0.07 (+2.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.42 (-13.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+16.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+128.0%)
Worst Case $0.70 (-76.9%)
Volatility +92.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$3.89
Avg Loss -$1.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.70 (-76.9%)
Std Dev $2.81
Avg Norm Float 0.4486
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 152h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 08S //TOTAL COST $3.04 //ASK PRICE EV $3.11 //BID PRICE EV $2.63 //ASK PROFIT $0.07 (+2.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.42 (-13.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +92.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$6.93
+$3.89
+128.0%
$5.76
+$2.72
+89.5%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.28
-$1.76
-57.9%
$1.16
-$1.88
-61.8%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$1.23
-$1.81
-59.5%
$1.08
-$1.96
-64.5%
$0.15
12.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.82
-$2.22
-72.9%
$0.81
-$2.23
-73.4%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.33
-76.6%
$0.60
-$2.44
-80.3%
$0.11
15.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.33
-76.7%
$0.64
-$2.40
-78.9%
$0.07
9.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$2.34
-76.9%
$0.64
-$2.40
-78.9%
$0.06
9.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.3364875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.26919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.2315,
"optimistic_value": 1.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:29.935723Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2916225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 1.2805,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:50.800531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.412758,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:36.002665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.24675750000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 0.8234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:46:22.743385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35892,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:43:12.283337Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35892,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 0.707,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:11:09.466835Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2dfde1418dbfc37d7a533e32",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "506235442367971296",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:49.453987Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "518620122756030208",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:31.508136Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "491598743580508850",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:19.450741Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "520872141037862616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.420061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724643507505009",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.420061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.420061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.120608Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "490472843633153163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:20:39.052853Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "517494441498328558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:20:39.052853Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "509613142168171767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:15.063482Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.47 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +160.5% | $8.59 +23.7% | 35.0% | +99.7% | $6.94 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.46 Moonrise 6.0% $5.30 Lionfish 6.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $1.74 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +145.1% | $19.16 +20.7% | 35.0% | +91.4% | $15.88 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.76 Wild Six 6.0% $0.73 | $6.94 +149.8% | $3.12 +12.2% | 35.0% | +98.9% | $2.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.47 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +210.1% | $7.53 +29.1% | 30.0% | +118.0% | $5.83 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.47 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +258.0% | $6.46 +28.0% | 50.0% | +132.7% | $5.05 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Moonrise 2.0% $5.34 Lionfish 2.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.74 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.48 | $38.92 +101.6% | $23.86 +23.5% | 45.0% | +70.5% | $19.31 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.47 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +128.8% | $9.65 +22.1% | 40.0% | +86.5% | $7.90 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.47 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +301.7% | $5.40 +20.0% | 40.0% | +141.5% | $4.50 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.47 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 14.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +375.7% | $4.34 +14.2% | 30.0% | +153.4% | $3.80 | — |