The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Night Riot
1x $0.28
Grip
2x $0.30
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.43
Mint Fan
2x $0.52
Royal Baroque
1x $1.04
Reef Grief
2x $1.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
35.0% $5.35
Moonrise
6.0% $2.25
Lionfish
6.0% $1.29
SWAG-7
6.0% $0.82
Arctic Wolf
6.0% $0.68
Max Win
$18.08 (+149.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.54 (+18.0%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+99.5%
Cost
$7.24
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.24
Ask Price EV $8.54 (+18.0%)
Bid Price EV $7.42 (+2.5%)
Ask Profit $1.30 (+18.0%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+2.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.12 (+15.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.30
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+149.7%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-90.7%)
Volatility +99.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$10.84
Avg Loss -$3.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-90.7%)
Std Dev $7.21
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 150h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 41S //TOTAL COST $7.24 //ASK PRICE EV $8.54 //BID PRICE EV $7.42 //ASK PROFIT $1.30 (+18.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+2.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +99.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$18.08
+$10.84
+149.7%
$15.21
+$7.97
+110.1%
$2.87
15.9%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$5.35
-$1.89
-26.1%
$5.11
-$2.13
-29.4%
$0.24
4.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.25
-$4.99
-69.0%
$2.09
-$5.15
-71.1%
$0.16
7.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.29
-$5.95
-82.2%
$1.04
-$6.20
-85.6%
$0.25
19.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.82
-$6.42
-88.6%
$0.72
-$6.52
-90.1%
$0.10
12.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.68
-$6.56
-90.6%
$0.64
-$6.60
-91.2%
$0.04
6.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.67
-$6.57
-90.7%
$0.64
-$6.60
-91.2%
$0.03
4.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.1497375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.11979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.348,
"optimistic_value": 5.32,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:23.634650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1297725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 2.247,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:45.069175Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.183678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 0.8234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:34.360075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1098075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 1.287,
"optimistic_value": 1.28,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T10:40:25.221598Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.15972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:59.261369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.15972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 0.681,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:57:11.318376Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2dfde1418dbfc37d7a533e32",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "518620122756030208",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:44.915971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "491598743580508850",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:11.808454Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "523123888073084050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:11.808454Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "516368488726417046",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:24.277848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "500605837397096555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:56.943225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "500605942755294155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:24.277848Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "527627540537881976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "625579418032572382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:17.698358Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:00.104793Z"
},
{
"price": 1.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017713403458",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:00.104793Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.46 Moonrise 6.0% $5.34 Lionfish 6.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $1.78 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +129.1% | $19.17 +12.8% | 35.0% | +85.4% | $16.99 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.16 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.76 Wild Six 6.0% $0.73 | $6.93 +140.7% | $3.09 +7.3% | 35.0% | +95.9% | $2.88 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.16 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.71 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.68 | $6.93 +131.8% | $3.08 +3.1% | 35.0% | +92.6% | $2.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +323.3% | $5.37 +25.8% | 40.0% | +149.2% | $4.27 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +251.7% | $6.43 +25.0% | 50.0% | +130.6% | $5.14 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +192.0% | $7.48 +20.9% | 30.0% | +111.4% | $6.19 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.35 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.77 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +122.9% | $9.60 +18.3% | 40.0% | +84.7% | $8.11 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Moonrise 2.0% $5.34 Lionfish 2.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.76 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +88.6% | $23.86 +15.6% | 45.0% | +65.9% | $20.64 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 14.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +370.7% | $4.31 +12.3% | 30.0% | +151.9% | $3.84 | — |