The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Grip
3x $0.30
Royal Baroque
1x $1.57
Reef Grief
3x $1.68
Yeti Camo
2x $1.73
Mint Fan
1x $4.03
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.46
Moonrise
6.0% $5.30
Lionfish
6.0% $3.82
SWAG-7
6.0% $1.74
Arctic Wolf
6.0% $1.50
Max Win
$38.92 (+145.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.16 (+20.7%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+95.4%
Cost
$15.88
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.88
Ask Price EV $19.16 (+20.7%)
Bid Price EV $17.44 (+9.8%)
Ask Profit $3.28 (+20.7%)
Bid Profit $1.56 (+9.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.72 (+10.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.28
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.56
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+145.1%)
Worst Case $1.48 (-90.7%)
Volatility +95.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$23.04
Avg Loss -$7.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.48 (-90.7%)
Std Dev $15.14
Avg Norm Float 0.0930
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 104h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.68 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.73 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New
$4.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 09S //TOTAL COST $15.88 //ASK PRICE EV $19.16 //BID PRICE EV $17.44 //ASK PROFIT $3.28 (+20.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.56 (+9.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +95.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$38.92
+$23.04
+145.1%
$34.38
+$18.50
+116.5%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$13.46
-$2.42
-15.2%
$13.24
-$2.64
-16.6%
$0.22
1.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.30
-$10.58
-66.6%
$5.26
-$10.62
-66.9%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.82
-$12.06
-75.9%
$3.65
-$12.23
-77.0%
$0.17
4.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.74
-$14.14
-89.0%
$1.64
-$14.24
-89.7%
$0.10
6.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.50
-$14.38
-90.6%
$1.28
-$14.60
-91.9%
$0.22
14.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.48
-$14.40
-90.7%
$1.11
-$14.77
-93.0%
$0.37
24.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0697875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.05583,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.458499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:59.855993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.060482499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.3035,
"optimistic_value": 5.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:02.808939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.085606,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 1.744,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:55:16.515798Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0511775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.824,
"optimistic_value": 3.81,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.534663Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07443999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 1.4769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 1.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T04:19:30.791389Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07443999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 1.5,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:36.417619Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2dfde1418dbfc37d7a533e32",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "491598743580508850",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:19.450741Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "523123888073084050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:19.450741Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:19.450741Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:26.091485Z"
},
{
"price": 1.68,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "521997822477172482",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:48.019994Z"
},
{
"price": 1.73,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "506235442367855340",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:20.149064Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "523123940969243050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:20.149064Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "518620341243184240",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "523123940969190454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z"
},
{
"price": 4.03,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "642467916641632601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:50.093370Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.47 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +160.5% | $8.59 +23.7% | 35.0% | +99.7% | $6.94 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.76 Wild Six 6.0% $0.73 | $6.94 +149.8% | $3.12 +12.2% | 35.0% | +98.9% | $2.78 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.71 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.71 | $6.93 +128.0% | $3.11 +2.3% | 35.0% | +90.4% | $3.04 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.47 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +210.1% | $7.53 +29.1% | 30.0% | +118.0% | $5.83 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.47 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +258.0% | $6.46 +28.0% | 50.0% | +132.7% | $5.05 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Moonrise 2.0% $5.34 Lionfish 2.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.74 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.48 | $38.92 +101.6% | $23.86 +23.5% | 45.0% | +70.5% | $19.31 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.47 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +128.8% | $9.65 +22.1% | 40.0% | +86.5% | $7.90 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.47 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +301.7% | $5.40 +20.0% | 40.0% | +141.5% | $4.50 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.47 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 14.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +375.7% | $4.34 +14.2% | 30.0% | +153.4% | $3.80 | — |