The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Grip
2x $0.31
Night Riot
1x $1.85
Royal Baroque
1x $1.44
Yeti Camo
1x $1.73
Reef Grief
3x $2.02
Mint Fan
2x $3.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.46
SWAG-7
6.0% $10.59
Arctic Wolf
6.0% $9.64
Wild Six
6.0% $6.02
Moonrise
6.0% $5.30
Max Win
$38.92 (+86.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.46 (-1.8%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+66.6%
Cost
$20.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.83
Ask Price EV $20.46 (-1.8%)
Bid Price EV $18.73 (-10.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.37 (-1.8%)
Bid Profit $-2.10 (-10.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.72 (+8.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.10
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+86.9%)
Worst Case $3.82 (-81.6%)
Volatility +66.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$18.09
Avg Loss -$10.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.82 (-81.6%)
Std Dev $13.86
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 104h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.73 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New
$3.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New
$4.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 10S //TOTAL COST $20.83 //ASK PRICE EV $20.46 //BID PRICE EV $18.73 //ASK PROFIT $-0.37 (-1.8%) //BID PROFIT $-2.10 (-10.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +66.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$38.92
+$18.09
+86.9%
$34.38
+$13.55
+65.1%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$13.46
-$7.37
-35.4%
$13.24
-$7.59
-36.4%
$0.22
1.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$10.59
-$10.24
-49.1%
$10.08
-$10.75
-51.6%
$0.51
4.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$9.64
-$11.19
-53.7%
$9.51
-$11.32
-54.3%
$0.13
1.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$6.02
-$14.81
-71.1%
$5.95
-$14.88
-71.4%
$0.07
1.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.30
-$15.53
-74.5%
$5.26
-$15.57
-74.7%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.82
-$17.01
-81.6%
$3.65
-$17.18
-82.5%
$0.17
4.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.458499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:59.855993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.045487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.3035,
"optimistic_value": 5.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:02.808939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0643816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 10.5935,
"optimistic_value": 10.59,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 10.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:40:07.803474Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.038489,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.824,
"optimistic_value": 3.81,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.534663Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055984000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 6.0245,
"optimistic_value": 6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 5.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:55:05.884764Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055984000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 9.641,
"optimistic_value": 9.62,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 9.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:41.067168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2dfde1418dbfc37d7a533e32",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "523123888073084050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:19.450741Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:19.450741Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "498354089953989859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:19.103936Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:26.091485Z"
},
{
"price": 1.73,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "506235442367855340",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:20.149064Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "518620341243184240",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "523123940969190454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z"
},
{
"price": 3.31,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "498354142900372711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:50.093370Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z"
},
{
"price": 4.03,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "642467916641632601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:50.093370Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.47 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +160.5% | $8.59 +23.7% | 35.0% | +99.7% | $6.94 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.46 Moonrise 6.0% $5.30 Lionfish 6.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $1.74 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +145.1% | $19.16 +20.7% | 35.0% | +91.4% | $15.88 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.76 Wild Six 6.0% $0.73 | $6.94 +149.8% | $3.12 +12.2% | 35.0% | +98.9% | $2.78 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.71 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.71 | $6.93 +128.0% | $3.11 +2.3% | 35.0% | +90.4% | $3.04 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.47 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +210.1% | $7.53 +29.1% | 30.0% | +118.0% | $5.83 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.47 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +258.0% | $6.46 +28.0% | 50.0% | +132.7% | $5.05 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Moonrise 2.0% $5.34 Lionfish 2.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.74 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.48 | $38.92 +101.6% | $23.86 +23.5% | 45.0% | +70.5% | $19.31 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.47 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +128.8% | $9.65 +22.1% | 40.0% | +86.5% | $7.90 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.47 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +301.7% | $5.40 +20.0% | 40.0% | +141.5% | $4.50 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.47 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 14.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +375.7% | $4.34 +14.2% | 30.0% | +153.4% | $3.80 | — |