The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +12.2%Factory New -1.8%Field-Tested +23.7%Minimal Wear +20.7%Well-Worn +2.3%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Grip

2x $0.16

Night Riot

1x $0.25

Yeti Camo

3x $0.23

Cobalt Paisley

3x $0.32

Royal Baroque

1x $0.38

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $6.94

Moonrise

6.0% $1.28

Royal Guard

35.0% $1.23

Lionfish

6.0% $0.82

Arctic Wolf

6.0% $0.76

Wild Six

6.0% $0.73

Max Win

$6.94 (+149.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$3.12 (+12.2%)

Win %

35.0%

Volatility

+101.2%

Cost

$2.78

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $2.78

Ask Price EV $3.12 (+12.2%)

Bid Price EV $2.72 (-2.3%)

Ask Profit $0.34 (+12.2%)

Bid Profit $-0.06 (-2.3%)

Liquidity Gap $0.40 (+14.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06

Risk

Win Probability 35.0%

Loss Probability 65.0%

Best Case $6.94 (+149.8%)

Worst Case $0.71 (-74.5%)

Volatility +101.2%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%

Avg Win +$4.16

Avg Loss -$1.72

Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-74.5%)

Std Dev $2.81

Avg Norm Float 0.5406

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 19m

Oldest Output Price 152h 25m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

R8 Revolver | Grip

—

Well-Worn

$0.16 Float: HIDDEN

R8 Revolver | Grip

—

Well-Worn

$0.17 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Night Riot

—

Field-Tested

$0.25 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.23 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.24 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.38 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 07S //TOTAL COST $2.78 //ASK PRICE EV $3.12 //BID PRICE EV $2.72 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+12.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +101.2% //

Possible Outputs · 7

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.40546499999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.9435,
      "optimistic_value": 6.8,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 6.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.324372,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2315,
      "optimistic_value": 1.2,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:29.935723Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.351403,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
      "realistic_value": 1.2805,
      "optimistic_value": 1.27,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
      "conservative_value": 1.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:50.800531Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.4973704,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
      "realistic_value": 0.71,
      "optimistic_value": 0.71,
      "output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
      "conservative_value": 0.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T11:41:39.862693Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.297341,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
      "realistic_value": 0.8234999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 0.82,
      "output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
      "conservative_value": 0.81,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:46:22.743385Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.432496,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
      "realistic_value": 0.73,
      "optimistic_value": 0.73,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
      "conservative_value": 0.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:53.126162Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.432496,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
      "realistic_value": 0.76,
      "optimistic_value": 0.76,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
      "conservative_value": 0.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T21:21:42.342697Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_2dfde1418dbfc37d7a533e32",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.16,
      "skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
      "listing_id": "506235442367971296",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:49.453987Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
      "listing_id": "496101493266995291",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:49.453987Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
      "listing_id": "511864941881444217",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:11:18.777087Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "520872141037862616",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.420061Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724643507505009",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.420061Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "518620341243236260",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.120608Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.420061Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.120608Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "519746188258491416",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.120608Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "490472843633153163",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:20:39.052853Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.47 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.71	$18.08 +160.5%	$8.59 +23.7%	35.0%	+99.7%	$6.94	—
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.46 Moonrise 6.0% $5.30 Lionfish 6.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $1.74 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $1.50	$38.92 +145.1%	$19.16 +20.7%	35.0%	+91.4%	$15.88	—
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Moonrise 6.0% $1.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 Lionfish 6.0% $0.82 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.71 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.71	$6.93 +128.0%	$3.11 +2.3%	35.0%	+90.4%	$3.04	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.47 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.81 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.71	$18.08 +210.1%	$7.53 +29.1%	30.0%	+118.0%	$5.83	—
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.47 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.71	$18.08 +258.0%	$6.46 +28.0%	50.0%	+132.7%	$5.05	—
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Moonrise 2.0% $5.34 Lionfish 2.0% $3.82 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.74 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.48	$38.92 +101.6%	$23.86 +23.5%	45.0%	+70.5%	$19.31	—
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.47 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $0.68	$18.08 +128.8%	$9.65 +22.1%	40.0%	+86.5%	$7.90	—
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.47 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.71	$18.08 +301.7%	$5.40 +20.0%	40.0%	+141.5%	$4.50	—
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.47 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 14.0% $0.71	$18.08 +375.7%	$4.34 +14.2%	30.0%	+153.4%	$3.80	—