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The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6

Restricted → Classified MW 10 items
Battle-Scarred -33.5%Factory New +32.0%Field-Tested +9.1%Minimal Wear -9.5%Well-Worn -28.1%
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear
Inputs
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
2x $3.85
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
1x $3.91
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
1x $4.08
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
3x $7.43
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
2x $9.92
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
1x $14.74
↓
Possible Outputs
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
30.0% $138.17
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
30.0% $122.85
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
13.3% $60.44
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
13.3% $16.56
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
13.3% $16.50
Max Win
$138.17 (+37.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$90.77 (-9.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+50.6%
Cost
$100.31
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $100.31
Ask Price EV $90.77 (-9.5%)
Bid Price EV $84.87 (-15.4%)
Ask Profit $-9.54 (-9.5%)
Bid Profit $-15.44 (-15.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.91 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$9.54
Bid Slippage Buffer -$15.44
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $138.17 (+37.7%)
Worst Case $16.50 (-83.6%)
Volatility +50.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$30.20
Avg Loss -$69.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.50 (-83.6%)
Std Dev $50.75
Avg Norm Float 0.1495
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 153h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)
$3.85 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)
$3.91 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)
$4.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)
$4.09 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
—
Field-Tested
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)
$7.43 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Field-Tested
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)
$9.92 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
—
Field-Tested
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)
$10.70 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Derailment
—
Minimal Wear
MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)
$14.74 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Field-Tested
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)
$18.42 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
—
Minimal Wear
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)
$23.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 46S //TOTAL COST $100.31 //ASK PRICE EV $90.77 //BID PRICE EV $84.87 //ASK PROFIT $-9.54 (-9.5%) //BID PROFIT $-15.44 (-15.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $138.17 //VOLATILITY +50.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14952,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
      "realistic_value": 138.1745,
      "optimistic_value": 134.51,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
      "conservative_value": 128.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:35:55.105656Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14952,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
      "realistic_value": 122.8545,
      "optimistic_value": 120.66,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
      "conservative_value": 114.51,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:44:34.492918Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14952,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 60.4355,
      "optimistic_value": 59.76,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 56.5,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:07:33.404330Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14952,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 16.5,
      "optimistic_value": 16.5,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 16.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:25.499674Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14952,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 16.557,
      "optimistic_value": 16.48,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 16.46,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:39:55.885704Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_13260bba61f4575f8c167e6a",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 3.85,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "509613142167762051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:48.745056Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.91,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "519746241188595248",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:57:22.799365Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.08,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "502857742727326204",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:16:00.780786Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.09,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "520872141038513460",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:48.745056Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 7.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "501731842662029081",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:29.688274Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 9.92,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "520872141038470080",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:19:44.480433Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 10.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "493850543432341336",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:29.688274Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 14.74,
      "skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "listing_id": "503983642533451519",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:16:05.841255Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 18.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "503983642533469051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:19:44.480433Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 23.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "518620288314505252",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:15.283312Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
30.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
30.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
13.3% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
13.3% $39.59
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
13.3% $38.82
$597.10
+164.5%
$297.94
+32.0%
60.0%+96.6%$225.79—
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
30.0% $64.09
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
30.0% $41.81
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
13.3% $35.39
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
13.3% $9.44
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
13.3% $8.93
$64.09
+79.5%
$38.94
+9.1%
60.0%+58.1%$35.70—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
35.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
35.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
10.0% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
10.0% $39.59
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
10.0% $38.82
$597.10
+127.9%
$334.90
+27.8%
70.0%+81.4%$261.99—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
5.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
5.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
30.0% $39.59
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $38.44
$597.10
+571.7%
$113.04
+27.2%
40.0%+147.0%$88.89—
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
40.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
40.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
6.7% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
6.7% $39.59
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
6.7% $38.82
$597.10
+96.8%
$371.86
+22.6%
40.0%+66.5%$303.37—
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
45.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
45.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
3.3% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
3.3% $39.59
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
3.3% $38.44
$597.10
+70.5%
$408.80
+16.7%
45.0%+52.0%$350.17—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Classified → Covert Minimal Wear
LongDog
AWP | LongDog
10.0% $663.30
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
45.0% $200.36
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
45.0% $183.83
$663.30
+252.7%
$239.22
+27.2%
55.0%+75.3%$188.06—
FS

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