The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Memorial
5x $0.11
Mockingbird
1x $0.27
Metallic Squeezer
2x $0.32
Pipsqueak
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Monster Melt
13.3% $4.12
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $4.08
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $4.05
Serpent Strike
12.0% $0.77
Control
12.0% $0.77
Tosai
12.0% $0.72
Max Win
$4.12 (+79.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.06 (-10.0%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+72.1%
Cost
$2.29
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.29
Ask Price EV $2.06 (-10.0%)
Bid Price EV $1.98 (-13.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.23 (-10.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.31 (-13.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+3.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $4.12 (+79.9%)
Worst Case $0.61 (-73.3%)
Volatility +72.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$1.79
Avg Loss -$1.57
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.61 (-73.3%)
Std Dev $1.65
Avg Norm Float 0.4263
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 142h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Well-Worn
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Well-Worn
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 05S //TOTAL COST $2.29 //ASK PRICE EV $2.06 //BID PRICE EV $1.98 //ASK PROFIT $-0.23 (-10.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.31 (-13.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $4.12 //VOLATILITY +72.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$4.12
+$1.83
+79.9%
$3.94
+$1.65
+72.1%
$0.18
4.4%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$4.08
+$1.79
+78.2%
$4.00
+$1.71
+74.7%
$0.08
2.0%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Field-Tested | ƒ 0.3495824
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
13.3%
$4.05
+$1.76
+76.7%
$4.02
+$1.73
+75.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.77
-$1.52
-66.2%
$0.66
-$1.63
-71.2%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.77
-$1.52
-66.4%
$0.66
-$1.63
-71.2%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.72
-$1.57
-68.5%
$0.69
-$1.60
-69.9%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.70
-$1.59
-69.4%
$0.57
-$1.72
-75.1%
$0.13
18.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.61
-$1.68
-73.3%
$0.59
-$1.70
-74.2%
$0.02
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.36237199999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 4.08,
"optimistic_value": 4.08,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:07.115248Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.34958239999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 4.0475,
"optimistic_value": 4.03,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 4.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:22.863699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.31973999999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 4.1205,
"optimistic_value": 4.04,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 3.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:29.258084Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.24300239999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.3406275484,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.42632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.6105,
"optimistic_value": 0.6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:38.340732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.40523804968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:15:52.402148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.29842399999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.721,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:48:07.416991Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_126abdc3bed14583fbf10be8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "507361289453465077",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:41.018979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "494976390476858406",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:41.018979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "498353924438780335",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:05.735927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "501731789729496833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:05.735927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:05.735927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "497228190141910433",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:20.862131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "520872088105850856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:06.527443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "507361123687293397",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:06.527443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "528753387757469169",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:00.787464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633336414",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:00.787464Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-overpass-2024:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Control 12.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.45 Tosai 12.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +199.6% | $4.64 +29.6% | 40.0% | +106.5% | $3.58 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Rising Sun 12.0% $1.80 Control 12.0% $1.67 Wave Breaker 12.0% $1.63 | $10.72 +141.0% | $4.87 +9.5% | 40.0% | +83.1% | $4.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.16 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Control 10.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.45 Tosai 10.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +154.1% | $5.50 +30.4% | 50.0% | +90.1% | $4.22 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.16 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Control 8.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.45 Tosai 8.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +115.8% | $6.36 +28.0% | 60.0% | +73.3% | $4.97 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.50 Control 6.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.45 Tosai 6.0% $1.34 | $10.72 +86.2% | $7.22 +25.3% | 70.0% | +58.1% | $5.76 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  15.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  15.0% $33.43 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 Searing Rage  23.3% $6.88 K.O. Factory  23.3% $6.67 | $47.63 +228.5% | $17.10 +17.9% | 30.0% | +109.2% | $14.50 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  70.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  15.0% $117.26 Bad Trip  15.0% $82.77 | $1,312.69 +60.0% | $948.89 +15.7% | 70.0% | +67.8% | $820.21 | — |