The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Nexus
1x $0.34
PC-GRN
1x $0.47
Resupply
3x $1.69
Mockingbird
1x $1.70
Wurst Hölle
2x $1.17
Teal Graf
1x $2.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $25.66
Monster Melt
13.3% $20.12
Rising Sun
12.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
12.0% $8.82
Control
12.0% $8.00
Max Win
$27.45 (+78.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.91 (-9.7%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+58.2%
Cost
$15.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.40
Ask Price EV $13.91 (-9.7%)
Bid Price EV $13.74 (-10.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.49 (-9.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.66 (-10.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.49
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.66
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $27.45 (+78.3%)
Worst Case $4.26 (-72.3%)
Volatility +58.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$9.01
Avg Loss -$8.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.26 (-72.3%)
Std Dev $8.96
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 67h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Nexus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.69 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.73 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 49S //TOTAL COST $15.40 //ASK PRICE EV $13.91 //BID PRICE EV $13.74 //ASK PROFIT $-1.49 (-9.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.66 (-10.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +58.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$27.45
+$12.05
+78.3%
$26.69
+$11.29
+73.3%
$0.76
2.8%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0573426
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
13.3%
$25.66
+$10.26
+66.6%
$25.62
+$10.22
+66.4%
$0.04
0.2%
—
WIN
13.3%
$20.12
+$4.72
+30.6%
$19.85
+$4.45
+28.9%
$0.27
1.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.18
-$6.22
-40.4%
$9.00
-$6.40
-41.6%
$0.18
2.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$8.82
-$6.58
-42.7%
$8.78
-$6.62
-43.0%
$0.04
0.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$8.00
-$7.40
-48.1%
$7.98
-$7.42
-48.2%
$0.02
0.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$4.32
-$11.08
-71.9%
$4.30
-$11.10
-72.1%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$4.26
-$11.14
-72.3%
$4.23
-$11.17
-72.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0594405,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:37.529360Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0573426,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.116500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:46.916177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0398601,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.2605,
"optimistic_value": 4.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:18.545577Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.05587372035,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.997,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:40.593762Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.184000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:05.575233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06647189157000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.8175,
"optimistic_value": 8.8,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:33.317926Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.32,
"optimistic_value": 4.32,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:54.482976Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_126abdc3bed14583fbf10be8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "501731789729531501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:03.756264Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "494976390475602006",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:13.607168Z"
},
{
"price": 1.69,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "511864888984897605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:39.650443Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "519746188258523816",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:33.897734Z"
},
{
"price": 1.73,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "511864888983853605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:39.650443Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "528753387757505925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:39.650443Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:29.882823Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:29.882823Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "490472790737051835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:46.747644Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "510738989040407230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:52.565156Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-overpass-2024:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Control 12.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.45 Tosai 12.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +199.6% | $4.64 +29.6% | 40.0% | +106.5% | $3.58 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Rising Sun 12.0% $1.80 Control 12.0% $1.67 Wave Breaker 12.0% $1.63 | $10.72 +141.0% | $4.87 +9.5% | 40.0% | +83.1% | $4.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.16 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Control 10.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.45 Tosai 10.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +154.1% | $5.50 +30.4% | 50.0% | +90.1% | $4.22 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.16 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Control 8.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.45 Tosai 8.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +115.8% | $6.36 +28.0% | 60.0% | +73.3% | $4.97 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.50 Control 6.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.45 Tosai 6.0% $1.34 | $10.72 +86.2% | $7.22 +25.3% | 70.0% | +58.1% | $5.76 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  15.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  15.0% $33.43 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 Searing Rage  23.3% $6.88 K.O. Factory  23.3% $6.67 | $47.63 +228.5% | $17.10 +17.9% | 30.0% | +109.2% | $14.50 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  70.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  15.0% $117.26 Bad Trip  15.0% $82.77 | $1,312.69 +60.0% | $948.89 +15.7% | 70.0% | +67.8% | $820.21 | — |