The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Memorial
1x $0.14
Sure Grip
2x $0.28
Nexus
2x $0.28
Mockingbird
1x $0.30
Teal Graf
1x $0.40
Pipsqueak
2x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $10.77
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $10.42
Monster Melt
13.3% $8.68
Control
12.0% $1.67
Serpent Strike
12.0% $1.55
Tosai
12.0% $1.34
Max Win
$10.77 (+200.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.71 (+31.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+120.7%
Cost
$3.59
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.59
Ask Price EV $4.71 (+31.3%)
Bid Price EV $4.51 (+25.7%)
Ask Profit $1.12 (+31.3%)
Bid Profit $0.92 (+25.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.12
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.92
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $10.77 (+200.0%)
Worst Case $0.73 (-79.7%)
Volatility +120.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$6.37
Avg Loss -$2.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.73 (-79.7%)
Std Dev $4.33
Avg Norm Float 0.1755
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 15h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 26S //TOTAL COST $3.59 //ASK PRICE EV $4.71 //BID PRICE EV $4.51 //ASK PROFIT $1.12 (+31.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.92 (+25.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $10.77 //VOLATILITY +120.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$10.77
+$7.18
+200.0%
$10.49
+$6.90
+192.2%
$0.28
2.6%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.1439346
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
13.3%
$10.42
+$6.83
+190.4%
$10.35
+$6.76
+188.3%
$0.07
0.7%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$8.68
+$5.09
+141.8%
$8.25
+$4.66
+129.8%
$0.43
5.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.67
-$1.92
-53.6%
$1.35
-$2.24
-62.4%
$0.32
19.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.55
-$2.04
-56.8%
$1.33
-$2.26
-63.0%
$0.22
14.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.34
-$2.25
-62.8%
$1.20
-$2.39
-66.6%
$0.14
10.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.79
-$2.80
-78.0%
$0.72
-$2.87
-79.9%
$0.07
8.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.73
-$2.86
-79.7%
$0.69
-$2.90
-80.8%
$0.04
5.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14920049999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.77,
"optimistic_value": 10.77,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:34.962416Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1439346,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.4245,
"optimistic_value": 10.4,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:39.419232Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1316475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.6815,
"optimistic_value": 8.51,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:20.663756Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.10005209999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 1.55,
"optimistic_value": 1.55,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:16.078637Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14024759235,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.6669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:19:36.262895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.17553,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:22:23.659961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.16684986596999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7304999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:07.730986Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.12287099999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.337,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:05.994013Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_126abdc3bed14583fbf10be8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "501731789729496833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:45.609978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "515242588554176929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:47.964954Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "503983589619542971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:44.641271Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "521997988015702842",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:14.375608Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "498354089952752431",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:47.964954Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "501731789729531501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:44.641271Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "503983589619426907",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:08.849314Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633440706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:12.266201Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "648097416147785180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:33.423807Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:12.266201Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-overpass-2024:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.42 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.68 Rising Sun 12.0% $1.80 Control 12.0% $1.67 Wave Breaker 12.0% $1.60 | $10.77 +142.0% | $4.94 +11.0% | 40.0% | +84.7% | $4.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.42 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.68 Control 10.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.55 Tosai 10.0% $1.34 | $10.77 +155.8% | $5.59 +32.7% | 50.0% | +91.8% | $4.21 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.42 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.68 Control 8.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.55 Tosai 8.0% $1.34 | $10.77 +116.7% | $6.46 +30.0% | 60.0% | +74.5% | $4.97 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.42 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.68 Control 6.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.55 Tosai 6.0% $1.34 | $10.77 +86.7% | $7.33 +27.1% | 70.0% | +58.8% | $5.77 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  15.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  15.0% $33.43 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 Searing Rage  23.3% $7.26 K.O. Factory  23.3% $6.69 | $47.63 +222.1% | $17.19 +16.2% | 30.0% | +106.6% | $14.79 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  70.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  15.0% $117.26 Bad Trip  15.0% $82.77 | $1,312.69 +61.1% | $948.89 +16.5% | 70.0% | +68.2% | $814.65 | — |