The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Memorial
1x $0.14
Nexus
2x $0.28
Mockingbird
2x $0.29
Sure Grip
1x $0.31
Pipsqueak
2x $0.42
Teal Graf
1x $0.74
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $10.72
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $10.16
Monster Melt
13.3% $8.50
Rising Sun
12.0% $1.80
Control
12.0% $1.67
Wave Breaker
12.0% $1.63
Max Win
$10.72 (+141.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.87 (+9.5%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+91.4%
Cost
$4.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.45
Ask Price EV $4.87 (+9.5%)
Bid Price EV $4.69 (+5.5%)
Ask Profit $0.42 (+9.5%)
Bid Profit $0.24 (+5.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+3.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.42
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $10.72 (+141.0%)
Worst Case $1.39 (-68.8%)
Volatility +91.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$5.35
Avg Loss -$2.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.39 (-68.8%)
Std Dev $4.07
Avg Norm Float 0.1500
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 16h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 05S //TOTAL COST $4.45 //ASK PRICE EV $4.87 //BID PRICE EV $4.69 //ASK PROFIT $0.42 (+9.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.24 (+5.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $10.72 //VOLATILITY +91.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$10.72
+$6.27
+141.0%
$10.49
+$6.04
+135.7%
$0.23
2.2%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.1229836
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
13.3%
$10.16
+$5.71
+128.4%
$10.00
+$5.55
+124.7%
$0.16
1.6%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$8.50
+$4.05
+90.9%
$8.25
+$3.80
+85.4%
$0.25
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.80
-$2.65
-59.6%
$1.76
-$2.69
-60.4%
$0.04
2.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.67
-$2.78
-62.5%
$1.35
-$3.10
-69.7%
$0.32
19.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.63
-$2.82
-63.4%
$1.55
-$2.90
-65.2%
$0.08
4.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.45
-$3.00
-67.4%
$1.33
-$3.12
-70.1%
$0.12
8.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.39
-$3.06
-68.8%
$1.20
-$3.25
-73.0%
$0.19
13.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.12748299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.724499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 10.7,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:46.199801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1229836,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.1645,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:43.525820Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.112485,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.497,
"optimistic_value": 8.28,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:32.374061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0854886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 1.4525,
"optimistic_value": 1.4,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:58.518507Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1198332701,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.6669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:19:36.262895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:33.259506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14256333901999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.6275,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:53.367530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.104986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.39,
"optimistic_value": 1.39,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:24.900348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_126abdc3bed14583fbf10be8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "501731789729496833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:05.735927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "503983589619542971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:03.756264Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "515242536108342325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:20.862131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "521997988015702842",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:20.862131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "498354089952752431",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:48.741736Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "501731789729531501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:03.756264Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633440706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:33.468714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:33.468714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "523123835627757262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:40:36.929387Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:24.836819Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-overpass-2024:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Control 12.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.45 Tosai 12.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +199.6% | $4.64 +29.6% | 40.0% | +106.5% | $3.58 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.16 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Control 10.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.45 Tosai 10.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +154.1% | $5.50 +30.4% | 50.0% | +90.1% | $4.22 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.16 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Control 8.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.45 Tosai 8.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +115.8% | $6.36 +28.0% | 60.0% | +73.3% | $4.97 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.50 Control 6.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.45 Tosai 6.0% $1.34 | $10.72 +86.2% | $7.22 +25.3% | 70.0% | +58.1% | $5.76 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  15.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  15.0% $33.43 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 Searing Rage  23.3% $6.88 K.O. Factory  23.3% $6.67 | $47.63 +228.5% | $17.10 +17.9% | 30.0% | +109.2% | $14.50 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  70.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  15.0% $117.26 Bad Trip  15.0% $82.77 | $1,312.69 +60.0% | $948.89 +15.7% | 70.0% | +67.8% | $820.21 | — |